BfV and BKA conclude Germany is a primary target of Russian hybrid threats
Germany’s domestic intelligence service (BfV) and the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) have determined that the country stands “at the very centre” of covert operations conducted by Russian intelligence, according to an investigation published on 28 November by Spiegel. Over several months, both agencies collected data on suspicious activity linked to Russian operatives across Germany, culminating in a comprehensive joint analysis of hybrid threats — from targeted disinformation and election interference to espionage, sabotage and drone incursions.
The report states that the overwhelming majority of hybrid threats directed at Germany originate from Putin’s Russia, placing the Federal Republic among the principal targets of Moscow’s covert strategy.
Fragmented system pushes Berlin toward unified threat assessment
Until recently, German security institutions lacked a shared, consolidated view of Russia’s hybrid operations. The recognition of a rapidly escalating threat prompted agencies to align their analyses to shape a coherent national response. Germany’s security architecture — split between federal and state structures — has long struggled with coordination on emerging hybrid challenges. The new joint assessment reflects an effort to synchronise intelligence and operational readiness amid intensifying Russian activity.
A widening spectrum of hostile Russian operations across Europe
European governments have repeatedly accused Russia of involvement in ammunition depot explosions in Central Europe, financing far-right parties to destabilise EU unity, spreading disinformation on social media, and interfering in elections in Romania and Moldova. In recent months, Russian drones have violated the airspace of Poland, Romania and Moldova, while unidentified UAVs have caused disruptions at airports and flown over military installations across Europe.
Russia has also been linked to GPS jamming, incursions by military aircraft and vessels, and even sabotage on critical supply lines — including an explosion on a Polish railway used to deliver military aid to Ukraine.
Surge in drone incidents over German military sites
On 28 November, the vice-president of Germany’s military intelligence service (BAMAD), Torsten Akmann, confirmed to Reuters that October saw a record number of drones over German territory, including above army and navy facilities. Many of the UAVs were detected over bases where Ukrainian troops are currently being trained.
German authorities have repeatedly warned that drones pose a direct threat to national security, with several airports temporarily suspending operations following incursions.
Germany expands counter-drone powers amid constitutional debate
The Bavarian government has already empowered regional police to shoot down drones deemed threatening. The federal government subsequently approved changes to policing laws to strengthen counter-UAV capabilities nationwide. Discussions in the Bundestag indicate that constitutional amendments may be required to establish a clearer legal framework for countering drone-based threats.
EU and NATO prepare for coordinated deterrence measures
Member states are now weighing a set of collective responses, including:
- joint offensive cyber operations,
- rapid and publicly attributed identification of Russian hybrid attacks,
- surprise NATO exercises near Russia’s borders to strengthen deterrence.
Latvia’s foreign minister Baiba Braže warned that Russia continually probes the “red lines” of EU and NATO states and that the West must adopt a more proactive stance. Germany’s deputy defence secretary Florian Hahn similarly questioned how long Europe can tolerate escalating hybrid attacks and whether a more assertive posture is now required.
