The European Commission has identified a growing number of flights between eastern Libyan city Benghazi and Minsk, signaling a possible alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, and Libyan general Khalifa Haftar aimed at provoking a fresh wave of illegal migration into the European Union. This development raises concerns about a coordinated effort to destabilize the EU through migration pressure.
Flight surge reflects hybrid warfare tactics targeting EU borders
Data shows a sharp increase in flights from Benghazi to Minsk over recent months—rising from two in May to five in June, with four in July. After Russia reduced its military presence in Syria following the Assad regime’s weakening, Moscow redeployed forces, including equipment from its Tartus base, to eastern Libya. The Kremlin’s substantial military support for Haftar, visible during a recent parade featuring Russian armored vehicles and air defense systems, underscores Moscow’s expanding influence in the region. Haftar commands smuggling networks in Libya, a major departure point for migrants attempting to reach Europe via the Mediterranean, suggesting that Russia may use this foothold to exert pressure on the EU.
Migration crisis risks political destabilization at EU eastern borders
The planned migration pressure echoes the 2021 crisis when tens of thousands of migrants, largely from the Middle East, were aided by Belarusian authorities to cross into Poland and Lithuania. That episode, widely seen as a hybrid warfare tactic by Russia and Belarus, aimed to divert EU attention from Russian military build-up near Ukraine prior to the February 2022 invasion. EU border agency Frontex reported 5,000 illegal crossings at the eastern frontier during the first seven months of 2025, lower than in 2024 but still indicative of a persistent threat. Officials warn the Libya-Belarus route could trigger a renewed surge.
EU officials warn of migration as weapon in hybrid conflict
EU Commissioner for Migration Magnus Brunner stated that Russia’s use of migrants as a weapon against Europe is already underway and fears this tactic will extend through Libya. The migration flows are part of a broader Russian hybrid warfare strategy that includes cyberattacks, disinformation, and political pressure designed to undermine political and social stability within EU border states. This approach risks intensifying internal EU debates over migrant distribution, border responsibilities, and funding, potentially strengthening radical parties and distracting from external security challenges such as Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
Complex challenge demands multifaceted EU response
The use of commercial airlines, private carriers, and intermediaries helps mask the operation as routine migration or business travel. Should the Benghazi-Minsk corridor become regular, the EU may face simultaneous political, humanitarian, and security crises along multiple fronts, complicating coordinated responses. Russia’s reliance on allies like Haftar allows it to maintain plausible deniability, further challenging EU countermeasures. Experts emphasize the need for a decisive and comprehensive EU strategy combining diplomacy, sanctions, and legal actions, including court cases against Minsk and involved entities, to effectively counter the emerging threat.
