Labour’s poll ratings surge under Andy Burnham’s leadership
Labour’s opinion poll ratings have soared since Andy Burnham indicated his intent to lead from Number 10, and have continued to improve throughout his first 100 days, reports BritPanorama.
A recent analysis reveals that Labour was at 19% in the week ending June 21, just before former leader Sir Keir Starmer resigned. At that time, Labour was nearly tied with Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, while Reform UK was leading with 27%.
According to Press Association analysis of polling data, the Greens held 14% and the Liberal Democrats 12% during this period.
Following Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election and his ascension to prime minister on July 20, Labour’s support began to climb. In the week ending July 19, just before his premiership began, Labour averaged 21%, an increase from a month earlier, while Reform had dropped to 24%.
This upward trend persisted in the early weeks of Burnham’s premiership. Labour’s average climbed to 23% in the week ending July 26, then hit 26% the week ending August 2, marking the first time the party had surpassed Reform since March 2025.
Throughout August and much of September, Labour maintained an average of mid-20s in polls, consistently outpacing Reform and other parties. However, since the end of September and the party conference season, several polls have shown Labour in the high 20s or low 30s, further boosting their average.
As of the week ending October 25, the latest averages show Labour at 29%, its highest rating since late 2024, while Reform and the Conservatives are tied at 22%. The Greens stand at 10% and the Liberal Democrats at 9%.
In summary, ahead of Burnham’s 100th day as prime minister on October 27, Labour’s current weekly poll average is now 10 percentage points higher than it was just before Sir Keir’s resignation.
Burnham’s initial 100 days in office indicate a marked improvement for Labour compared to the party’s position at the end of Sir Keir’s term, while Reform has experienced a notable decline from 27% to 22%.
Despite these shifts, the Conservatives, although they polled around 20% for much of August and September, have seen a small rise since the party conference season and are now level with Reform.
Some recent individual polls have placed the Conservatives in second place behind Labour, highlighting the dynamic nature of voter sentiment.
Before Burnham’s administration, the Greens were polling at 13% but are now at 10%, with the Liberal Democrats seeing a decrease from 12% to 9%.
The UK’s leading polling companies agree the political landscape has shifted since Burnham’s tenure began, with Keiran Pedley of Ipsos noting that Labour under Burnham is “resurgent, consolidating voters on the left behind them,” while the right sees significant changes.
Recent polling by Ipsos indicates Labour at 32%, the Conservatives at 24%, and Reform at 20%, reflecting broader patterns seen in recent months.
Burnham “remains the only party leader with a positive net approval rating and leads over both Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage in perceptions of who would make the better prime minister,” according to findings from Opinium.
While polls capture current public sentiment, they do not forecast future voting behavior. As Pedley remarked, “The picture today is very different from six months ago and it could change again in six months,” underscoring the volatility of British politics.
