Decline in approval ratings for Nigel Farage as Andy Burnham rises
Nigel Farage’s approval rating has hit its lowest level since the 2024 general election, according to a new poll, in the latest evidence that Reform UK is on the verge of seeing its support collapse, reports BritPanorama.
More in Common’s latest approval rating for party leaders shows Mr. Farage has plummeted to -32 per cent, a drop of around 10 points in just two weeks. In contrast, new prime minister Andy Burnham has surged to +19 per cent, benefiting from a strong start in office.
Burnham’s approval rating surpasses the +11 achieved by Sir Keir Starmer shortly after he took office in summer 2024. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch remains at 0, while Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey is at -11, and Green Party leader Zack Polanski has seen a significant downturn, rating at -24.
Although Mr. Farage remains above the -49 per cent that Sir Keir faced at one point, the More in Common findings represent the worst performance for the Reform UK leader in at least two years. Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, noted, “What may worry Farage is less the rise in disapproval; he’s always been polarising, and more the decline in raw approval, suggesting some previous fans wavering.”
The survey results follow another poll in which Labour has overtaken Reform UK for the first time in over a year, now leading with 28 per cent support compared to Mr. Farage’s party, which has dropped to 24 per cent.
This marks Labour’s first lead since March 2025, with Reform in second place and the Tories closely trailing at 22 per cent. The rapid decline in Mr. Farage’s popularity comes amid ongoing scrutiny regarding undeclared gifts and donations linked to George Cottrell, a convicted fraudster.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlighted that Reform UK has seen a three-point dip in popularity since Mr. Farage quit as an MP to call a by-election in Clacton, a move aimed at preempting a parliamentary standards inquiry.
While 34 candidates are contesting the by-election, Mr. Farage is expected to secure a considerable victory, as major parties have chosen not to participate. His main challenger is comedian Count Binface.
However, Lord Robert Hayward warned that Mr. Farage’s declining popularity poses a serious challenge for Reform UK. He stated, “Nigel Farage is tied to the Reform brand more than any other party leader is to theirs. If his support drops, it shows that Reform are in real trouble, and this could be the beginning of a real decline.”
Hayward suggested that the reasons behind Farage’s rapid decline extend beyond issues of donations, noting that Andy Burnham has surged into the limelight: “It has all been about Burnham.”
Since taking office, Mr. Burnham has effectively engaged with Mr. Farage on social media, utilizing a series of light-hearted TikTok videos and initiating consumer-friendly policies that include a £2 bus fare cap and VAT reductions on energy bills. While questions persist about the funding for these initiatives, Burnham also aims to address the social care crisis and increase defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP.
Prof. Curtice remarked that Mr. Farage’s decision to call a by-election complicates his media presence, as broadcast guidelines restrict interview opportunities without mentioning other candidates. He concluded, “There is no doubt though that Andy Burnham and Labour are using the summer recess to control the news agenda like Nigel Farage and Reform used it last year.”
The ongoing dynamics suggest a notable shift in the political landscape, particularly for Mr. Farage, who faces challenges from both within and outside his party.
