Part of a SpaceX rocket used to launch a pair of robotic commercial lunar landers is expected to crash into the moon early Wednesday morning, reports BritPanorama.
The Falcon 9 rocket lifted off on January 15, 2025, carrying the Blue Ghost lander developed by Texas-based Firefly Aerospace, as well as Tokyo-based Ispace’s Resilience lander. Blue Ghost successfully soft-landed on the moon in March 2025, while Resilience failed to land safely a few months later.
While the rocket’s first stage returned to Earth, Falcon 9’s second stage served as the in-space workhorse to propel the landers towards the moon. For missions heading to low-Earth orbit, operators typically dispose of the upper stage by allowing it to burn up in the atmosphere, said Julianna Scheiman, director of NASA Science and Dragon Programs at SpaceX, at a Monday news conference.
“But for high energy missions, we need to perform a different maneuver to ensure the second stage itself is safe per the appropriate rules and regulations,” Scheiman explained. “We did that here for the Ispace and Blue Ghost missions’ second stage, and what has happened is essentially a mixture of solar activity and gravity forces have put it on a path towards the moon.”
Independent astronomers used publicly available data to track the Falcon 9 upper stage and determine that it was on a collision course with the moon, according to NASA. The agency’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies confirmed the impact trajectory of the upper stage.
“There is no danger to Earth,” according to a statement shared by the agency. “NASA will continue to track the booster for training purposes, as well as later observe the impact site for scientific purposes.”
Astronomers across the Americas, who have the best chance of witnessing the impact expected to occur at 2:35 a.m. ET Wednesday, have aimed ground and space-based telescopes at the moon in hopes of witnessing the event. While there won’t be a way for the general public to watch the impact live, imagery will likely become available afterward.
Scientists can use this rare occurrence of an artificial object hitting the moon to learn more about Earth’s natural satellite and prepare for how to shield astronauts and any future infrastructure sent there.
NASA is planning to create a more sustained human presence on the lunar surface through the Artemis program. As more missions head for the moon, which lacks a protective atmosphere, managing the accumulation of space debris in lunar orbit will increasingly become an issue.
Watching a lunar impact in real time
The rocket’s upper stage, estimated to be around 8,818 pounds (4,000 kilograms), is expected to hit the lunar surface near Einstein Crater, according to a preprint study authored by a group of scientists, including researchers at NASA. The study is awaiting review for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters. The authors sought to share their predictions for the impact beforehand to enable astronomers to prepare for observing the event, said Darryl Seligman, assistant professor in the department of physics and astronomy at Michigan State University.
However, the impact won’t be visible with the naked eye and may be tough to spot through telescopes. The flash at the moment of impact, expected as the rocket strikes the moon moving at an estimated 5,436 miles per hour (2.43 kilometers per second), will last about a second at most.
“If you imagine the moon is a clock, it’ll sort of roughly hit where the 10 would be,” said Dr. Paul Wiegert, a professor of astronomy and physics at the Western University in London, Ontario, who was not involved in the study. “But that part of the moon is lit right now, so the bright flash will be muted by the brightness of the moon itself.”
The plume of debris generated by the rocket may be illuminated by sunlight, allowing researchers to see it through telescopes, Wiegert added. The Korean Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter will attempt to capture images of the upper stage before impact, and NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will try to survey the impact site afterward. Scientists estimate the collision will create a crater with a diameter of 65 to 90 feet (20 to 30 meters).
Space rocks regularly crash into the moon, and astronauts from the Apollo missions, as well as those from the Artemis II crew, reported glimpsing impact flashes from meteoroids impacting the lunar surface. However, impacts from artificial objects like the Falcon 9 upper stage have only occurred a handful of times.
The event comes as SpaceX faces scrutiny surrounding the release of its first-ever quarterly earnings report as a public company. The company’s shares have seen volatility since its blockbuster IPO in June.
Understanding lunar risks
An increase in lunar exploration likely means more space debris may hit the moon in the future. While space debris that poses a risk to Earth typically burns up in the atmosphere, the moon has no protective air. There is no formal tracking of debris that exists beyond our planet, as surveys searching for potentially hazardous asteroids identify pieces of space junk that can then be tracked.
Because it’s difficult to track and spot objects that slam into the moon, a collision of the upper stage helps scientists gain insights into the lunar surface properties. “What happens when an object crashes into the moon? We know it makes a crater, and it does eject material, but we don’t really understand that process in great detail,” Wiegert said. “With more spacecraft, and soon to have astronauts on the moon, we really want to understand that process better.”
Current estimates suggest that the rocket stage may launch rocky material as far as 500 miles (805 kilometers) from the impact site before landing back on the lunar surface. Such an event could pose a significant threat if it were to occur while astronauts and any habitats, hardware, or spacecraft were in the vicinity on the lunar surface.
Researchers are exploring ways to lower the odds of such collisions. “As a scientist, I’m excited to see the observation,” Scheiman said. “But we’re working in partnership with NASA and the other appropriate agencies to determine the best future disposal path for high-energy missions within the sun-Earth-moon system.”
The story of lunar impacts and space debris is evolving as exploration efforts increase, bringing both challenges and opportunities for future missions.
