Labour gains lead in polls ahead of key by-election
The Labour Party has gained a significant lead in national polling, with the latest data showing its popularity rising amid a shifting political landscape. A Survation poll released on Tuesday indicates Labour at 26 percent, one point ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which stands at 24 percent, reports BritPanorama.
This follows a series of polls where Labour led with 28 percent against Reform’s 24 percent according to More in Common, while a YouGov survey placed both parties at 22 percent. The recent polling marks a notable end to Reform’s dominance, which had consistently led in over 300 surveys since April 2025. Farage’s aspirations for the premiership seem increasingly distant as Labour’s position strengthens following a leadership change.
Labour is also positioning itself for a potential landslide victory in the upcoming Manchester mayor by-election, necessitated by Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s resignation from that role to assume his position in Westminster. Polling expert Lord Hayward noted that these surveys have shifted the discourse of British politics, attributing part of Labour’s resurgence to Burnham’s leadership and policy communication.
“There is no doubt there is a Burnham bounce and it has happened quicker than most of us expected,” Lord Hayward commented, suggesting that the decline in support for Reform is linked to Labour’s enhanced visibility and effectiveness under Burnham.
The current dynamics reveal that the Conservative Party, now under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, is closing the gap on Reform, achieving 21 percent in recent polls. Hayward noted the changing fortunes of these parties, suggesting that the perception of Reform as the natural party of the right is being challenged.
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice added that the political landscape is seeing a typical bounce associated with new leadership. He highlighted that Labour’s rise, spurred by a change from former leader Keir Starmer, has added six points overall since Burnham took office. However, he cautioned that such surges are not uncommon with new administrations.
Farage is currently engaged in a by-election in Clacton, having resigned his seat to trigger a vote. The party faces scrutiny over a £5 million donation from crypto billionaire Christopher Harbourne, further complicating its standing in the polls, which have seen Reform lose an average of three points since the beginning of July.
Lord Hayward observed that Burnham is using the period effectively with announcements and social media engagement, in contrast to Reform’s apparent inability to counter Labour’s momentum. According to More in Common, Labour’s candidate for mayor, Bev Craig, is projected to secure 39 percent in the imminent vote, with Reform expected to achieve approximately 19 percent.
A spokesperson for Reform expressed confidence despite the polling shift, maintaining that they anticipated Labour surpassing them in support. Meanwhile, Burnham noted the importance of connecting with people and emphasized not becoming overly reliant on polling data. His recent comments in Portsmouth reflected a desire to instil renewed optimism among the electorate.
As political tides shift, the strategic maneuvers and public sentiment will likely determine the upcoming election outcomes, serving as a pivotal moment for both Labour and Reform.
