Brexit impacts UK economy and immigration trends
Academics have long tracked the correlation between economic downturns and antipathy toward immigration. In Britain, this manifested in the 2016 Brexit referendum, where a majority of voting British people opted to decouple themselves from the EU, reports BritPanorama.
Brexit, heralded by figures like Trump ally Nigel Farage, now leader of Reform UK, promised greater control over borders and legal and economic freedom from the trading bloc. However, by 2025, the economic ramifications were evident, with the economy estimated to be 6%-8% smaller than it might have been without Brexit, according to the U.K. in a Changing Europe.
Despite expectations of decreased immigration, the reality has been different. While there was a decline in European incomers, this was offset by a significant increase in those arriving from outside the EU. Net migration rose dramatically from 335,000 in 2016 to 944,000 in 2023.
“Why is the economy so unstable today? Brexit. We might as well say the quiet part out loud,” remarked Scott Lucas, an international politics professor at Ireland’s University College Dublin. His comments reflect a growing sentiment among analysts regarding the ongoing effects of the referendum.
Guto Hari, former communications director for Boris Johnson, highlighted a shift in voter expectations, stating, “Whereas we used to be more cool and rational, the electorate is more fickle, it wants more instant gratification, and it gets frustrated more quickly.”
Hari further noted that Brexit left many “sold the idea that there are simple answers to complex questions — which there aren’t.” This complexity remains a challenge for policymakers moving forward.
