A victory for pro-Russian, nationalist and Eurosceptic candidates in France’s 2027 presidential election could put the country’s place in Nato at risk — and weaken its ability to resist Russian influence.
Nato is seriously concerned about the possibility that France could leave the alliance if rightwing and Eurosceptic politicians win the presidential election in 2027, according to a report published on 23 August 2026 by NEXTA. Among the politicians identified as supporting either a reduced French role in the alliance or a complete withdrawal are Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The prospect matters beyond France’s domestic politics. France is a nuclear-armed state and has one of Europe’s largest armed forces. Its departure would therefore represent a major blow to Nato’s military and political weight, while also removing Paris from the alliance’s collective defence planning and weakening the organisation’s cohesion.
What withdrawal would mean for France
Le Pen and Mélenchon present a reduced role in Nato, or withdrawal from the alliance, as a way of restoring French sovereignty. But leaving would not simply return decision-making powers to Paris. It would mean losing the ability to influence Nato’s collective defence planning and to participate fully in the arrangements through which the alliance coordinates its security policy.
A complete withdrawal would also mean the loss of Nato’s security guarantees for France. That distinction is central to the debate: national control over defence policy would increase in some respects, but France would no longer enjoy the same position within a collective system of protection.
The issue is especially significant because France’s military strength, including its nuclear capability, would not replace the advantages of collective defence. A national deterrent may give Paris an important military instrument, but it cannot compensate for the wider political and defence benefits of remaining part of Nato, according to the assessment set out in the materials.
A strategic setback for the alliance
For Nato, France’s departure would remove one of the largest European military powers from the alliance. It would also raise questions about the durability of collective defence at a time when the organisation depends on member states’ continued participation in common planning and security arrangements.
The damage would not be limited to the loss of French military capacity. France’s political influence inside the alliance would disappear, reducing the scope for Paris to shape decisions that affect European security. A withdrawal would therefore be both a military and political setback rather than a purely administrative change in membership.
The possibility is tied to the outcome of the 2027 presidential election. The scenario described in the report would materialise only if politicians advocating limited participation or full withdrawal gained power, but the prospect has already become a source of serious concern within Nato.
Greater exposure to Kremlin influence
The consequences for France could extend beyond its formal relationship with Nato. Leaving the alliance would risk placing the country in a degree of military and political isolation, making it more vulnerable to Kremlin influence.
That vulnerability could take several forms: Russian political pressure, information operations and wider hybrid interference. The loss of collective security arrangements would not automatically make France defenceless, but it would remove an important layer of protection and coordination at a time when Russian influence could seek to exploit divisions over sovereignty, Europe and defence policy.
The central concern is therefore not only whether France would remain a nuclear power after leaving Nato. It is whether that capability could offset the loss of collective planning, alliance guarantees and political influence — or whether withdrawal would instead leave France with fewer safeguards against Russian pressure and interference.
Would France’s nuclear capability be enough to offset the strategic costs of leaving Nato?
