AI-generated illustration; not a photograph of the reported event.
On 25 September 2026, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti published an article by Alexander Nosovich entitled Russia Faces Another Special Military Operation. It Will Be Very Short, which discussed a potential war with Lithuania. The article was removed about three hours later. The agency said the material did not reflect its editorial view, editorial policy or the state policy of the Russian Federation.
The article followed a statement by official Vilnius about the possible deployment of nuclear weapons in Lithuania. Nosovich described Lithuania as a “suicidal country without a brain” and wrote that a special military operation would be “very short”. He also said Russia could abandon a ground operation and “immediately launch missiles with an appropriate payload”. These statements were published by the agency and are not independently verified claims about any planned action.
Nosovich is the editor-in-chief of and a member of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, which is described in the source as one of the co-founders of the Valdai Club. Russian President Vladimir Putin regularly attends the club’s meetings. The Dossier Centre reportedly places Nosovich within a Baltic network allegedly created by Evgeny Umerenkov, described as a Russian presidential administration employee and foreign intelligence colonel. The source says these reported connections have led it to view the article in the context of Russian information operations.
The article appeared on a state news agency’s platform rather than on Nosovich’s personal outlet, potentially giving the statements wider distribution. The source assesses the text as an explicit threat linked to Lithuania’s possible security decisions and says it presented a nuclear missile strike as an alternative to a conventional military operation. It further argues that such rhetoric could be used for psychological pressure on Lithuania and other European societies. These are assessments contained in the source, rather than established findings.
Lithuania has been a full NATO member since 29 March 2004. Its approved 2026 budget allocates €4.79 billion to defence, equivalent to 5.38% of gross domestic product and 43% more than in 2025. According to NATO data cited in the source, more than 5,000 allied troops under NATO command were in Lithuania at the end of 2025, with the contingent expected to grow.
The source also notes that the article was published amid public warnings from European security officials and politicians about possible Russian action against NATO. In an assessment dated 11 February 2025, Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service outlined possible timelines for Russian military threats if the war in Ukraine were halted or frozen and NATO rearmament remained insufficient: about six months for a local war with a neighbouring country, two years for a regional war in the Baltic region and five years for a large-scale European war without United States involvement. Czech security chief Michal Koudelka has also discussed the possibility of a limited incursion, provocation or other operation on NATO territory, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned of risks to allied countries supporting Ukraine.
Any armed attack on Lithuania would concern a NATO member. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states that an armed attack against one ally is considered an attack against all, with each ally obliged to assist by taking action it deems necessary, including the use of armed force. The source says the article’s publication and rapid removal may have allowed reactions to a radical scenario to be gauged while distancing official policy from it, but this interpretation is not independently established.
