Burnham cautioned against early general election as Reform UK gains traction
Andy Burnham would be unwise to call an early general election because Reform UK could still become the largest party in Parliament, the UK’s leading polling expert has said, reports BritPanorama.
Nigel Farage’s party, despite a recent decline in the polls and ongoing scandals, revealed it secured a record £36m from British cryptocurrency entrepreneur Ben Delo for its election campaign. This financial boost comes amidst a police investigation over donations, underscoring the party’s turbulent circumstances.
However, it remains competitive against Labour, which has seen its popularity surge since Burnham became prime minister. Sir John Curtice noted that the latest YouGov poll indicates a close race, with Reform UK and Labour both at 23 percent, while the Conservatives trail at 20 percent.
Reform UK, once leading Labour by nine points, has experienced a significant downturn, with Labour overtaking them last month for the first time since March 2025. “The numbers are not there” for Burnham to call an early election, Curtice emphasized in an interview.
“The polls indicate that the Labour Party could lose its majority, with some mega-polls suggesting Reform would secure more seats than Labour,” he elaborated. He pointed out a concerning trend for Labour: the decline in support has disproportionately affected constituencies they previously held.
Furthermore, Curtice explained that Labour’s drop in local elections was most pronounced in their strongest areas, mirroring the Conservative Party’s disastrous performance in 2024. “This trend allows Reform, despite not leading by much, to perform well in terms of seats, as their support is geographically well distributed,” he added.
“The numbers are not favorable, and calling an election could jeopardize many MPs,” he warned, noting that Labour MPs have rallied behind Burnham, hoping for continued parliamentary careers under his leadership. Even late in the parliamentary cycle, Burnham “still has three years” to govern.
“He’s been itching to call an election. However, holding one now risks three years for the sake of potentially securing only two. It’s an unwise strategy.”
A spokesperson for Reform stated, “Curtice is correct on one point: Labour is terrified. We would welcome an election called by Andy Burnham, but he knows Reform would win.”
