Jaroslaw Kaczynski may still lead Poland’s Law and Justice party, but a new poll suggests that fewer voters now see him as the figure who can command it without challenge. Nearly half of respondents believe he has lost control of PiS, raising questions about whether the party’s long-standing dependence on one leader is becoming a liability.
The United Surveys poll for IBRiS, reported on 4 October 2026 by Polityka, found that 48.9% of those surveyed thought Kaczynski no longer controlled the party. Some 35.7% took the opposite view, while 15.4% were undecided.
The figures do not establish who is making decisions inside PiS, nor do they demonstrate a formal loss of power. They measure public perceptions of Kaczynski’s position. But for a party whose cohesion has long been tied to the authority of its chairman, that perception can itself alter the balance of power.
The question is no longer confined to Kaczynski’s opponents
The strongest scepticism came from voters supporting Poland’s governing coalition: 72% of them said Kaczynski had lost control of PiS. That result is hardly surprising given the parties’ position on opposite sides of the political divide. More revealing is that the doubt reaches beyond the government camp. Even among supporters of opposition forces, 39% shared the assessment.
That does not amount to a verdict on the party’s internal machinery. The survey does not name a rival faction, identify a successor or show that Kaczynski’s instructions are being openly rejected. It does, however, suggest that his role as the unquestioned final arbiter is no longer taken for granted by a substantial part of the electorate.
In a leader-centred organisation, authority depends on more than a formal title. It also depends on the expectation that disputes will ultimately be settled in the leader’s favour and that party figures will follow the line set at the top. Once that expectation weakens, disagreements over policy, candidates and political strategy can become contests over influence.
Strength built around one man carries a risk
Kaczynski’s personal standing has helped PiS contain tensions between politicians with different ambitions and priorities. A dominant party leader can postpone internal disputes, impose compromises or prevent them from becoming public crises. That arrangement can produce discipline, but it also leaves the organisation exposed if confidence in the central figure begins to fade.
The first signs of change need not come in the form of a leadership challenge. Politicians and party officials may alter their calculations before anyone openly calls for a replacement. They may build new alliances, resist decisions more firmly or position themselves for a future contest over the party’s direction.
This is the distinction between formal and practical control. Kaczynski can remain chairman while the ability of his decisions to settle disputes gradually diminishes. A party’s hierarchy may look unchanged on paper even as its members start to test the limits of the leader’s authority.
The poll cannot show whether that process is already under way inside PiS. It does show that the possibility has become visible beyond the party’s own ranks. That matters because political authority is partly sustained by reputation: leaders are stronger when allies, rivals and voters assume that they can still deliver.
PiS faces pressure from both sides
Any weakening of Kaczynski’s authority would have consequences beyond internal party management. PiS is already competing with Poland’s governing coalition to rebuild national support. It must also defend its position against other parties and movements on the political right.
That creates a two-front contest. The party needs to present itself as a credible alternative to the government while retaining voters who may prefer a different force on the right. If doubts about Kaczynski encourage some supporters to look elsewhere, PiS could lose ground within the political camp it has traditionally sought to lead.
The result would not necessarily be an immediate split. Political fragmentation can develop through shifting loyalties, rival campaigns and competing claims to represent the right. Even a modest movement of voters towards alternatives could make it harder for PiS to present itself as the natural home of conservative opposition.
That would complicate the party’s attempt to recover its status as Poland’s principal opposition force. A leader who once helped hold competing interests under one roof could instead become the focus of arguments about whether the organisation needs a new course, a new power arrangement or eventually a new leader.
For now, the poll points to a change in expectations rather than a completed transfer of power. Kaczynski remains the formal centre of PiS, but nearly half of those surveyed no longer believe that formal position guarantees control. The party’s immediate test is whether his authority can still contain internal rivalry before public doubt hardens into organised competition.
