Former Downing Street adviser cautions against overestimating Reform UK’s chances in next election

Prediction of Nigel Farage’s political future overestimated, says former adviser

Nigel Farage‘s aspirations for the premiership are being overestimated, according to a former Downing Street adviser, who asserts that the upcoming general election remains “Labour’s to lose,” reports BritPanorama.

Speaking on the In The Room podcast, Peter Hill, who served as Theresa May’s principal private secretary, noted that forecasts of a decisive victory for Reform UK neglect essential electoral dynamics: younger voters and the influence of tactical voting. He remarked, “If you’re polling the late twenties, tactical voting is an enormous problem for Reform. I think it’s unlikely they’ll be walking into No 10.”

Hill’s comments come in the context of a shifting political landscape for Reform UK. Earlier this month, Farage resigned as MP for Clacton, paving the way for a by-election which he framed as a confrontation between “the people and the establishment.” However, recent Ipsos polling and a More in Common survey conducted on 31 July revealed that Farage’s approval rating has plummeted to a record low of minus 32.

While Labour faces its own challenges, Hill emphasized that the fragmentation on the right is a more significant issue. “Labour are still capable of losing, but the fragmentation on the right is bigger than the fragmentation on the left,” he stated. He expressed skepticism towards the idea of a sweeping victory for nationalist-populist movements across Europe, acknowledging valid concerns these factions are addressing but doubting their long-term electoral viability.

Hill posited that Labour’s re-election strategy hinges not on remarkable achievements but on re-establishing competent governance following a period of political instability. The incoming Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, will contend with the challenge of breaking Westminster’s cycle of rapid leadership changes. Hill predicted Burnham would remain in Downing Street a year from now, although he humorously noted the audacity of such a prediction.

“Famous last words,” he remarked. Hill suggested that 2026 was expected to be a year of recovery, a prospect now complicated by international affairs and domestic challenges.

He further argued that the frequent turnover in political and civil service leadership has been detrimental, weakening vital governmental institutions. “We’ve been churning through leadership in politics and in the Civil Service far too fast over the last decade,” he explained. “You make corporals generals. Some of them are brilliant, but many of them need more time to serve and learn.”

Hill critiqued a prevalent approach in politics that mirrors Silicon Valley’s ethos of constant change and rapid innovation, stating that the political landscape thrives on stability, even amid frustrations with the system’s imperfections.

In the wake of a decade of turmoil, Hill expressed cautious optimism regarding the prospects for stability in Britain. “I don’t think it’s impossible that ’27 is the year things start to settle down,” he concluded, suggesting a tempered but hopeful outlook for the future.