Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on a working trip to Vitebsk region that the Russian-made Oreshnik missile system will be placed on combat alert in December and warned Europe it could be used if tensions escalate; the comments were reported by the state agency BelTA, which quoted him saying “we can…bahnut” if things go badly and that he and Vladimir Putin would decide on any use together.
Capabilities of the Oreshnik system
The Oreshnik is described by officials and open sources as a long-range, high-speed ballistic system with the ability to carry multiple independently targetable warheads and to penetrate missile defences, giving it the capacity to strike targets across Europe. Analysts and state statements say the system’s combination of speed, mobility and warhead options — including a nuclear role as acknowledged by Moscow and Minsk — make it difficult to track and intercept and therefore raise the stakes for regional deterrence and defence planning.
Context of Russian-Belarus military integration
Moscow has previously said it would deploy Oreshnik systems to Belarus as part of deeper security ties, and Belarusian officials have signalled preparatory work and facility construction near Minsk consistent with that plan; Kremlin and Belarusian statements in 2024–25 linked the move to joint exercises and revised security guarantees that extend Russia’s deterrent posture to Belarus. Those developments have been publicly acknowledged by Russian and Belarusian state media and referenced by regional reporting.
Regional security implications and response vectors
Placing intermediate-range systems on Belarusian soil would widen the theatre of strategic risk for Ukraine and NATO’s eastern flank, creating a new northern vector that NATO planners must factor into air-defence, force posture and infrastructure decisions; Western governments have not formally changed policy in response to Lukashenko’s Friday remarks, but past measures to bolster eastern-flank deterrence signal likely alliance concern. For Kyiv, the deployment would mean an additional layer of threat from Belarusian territory while reinforcing Moscow’s use of allied ground to project strategic capabilities.
Political signalling and risk of escalation
Beyond the hardware, Lukashenko’s public warning echoes Russian nuclear coercive rhetoric and serves both external and domestic political purposes: it signals alignment with Moscow, underlines Minsk’s role as a platform for Russian strategic systems, and addresses a domestic audience with claims of strength and deterrence. International partners supporting Ukraine view such moves as part of a pattern that raises the risk of miscalculation and complicates diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions.
