Support for Reform UK collapses as Labour and Tories gain ground
Support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has notably diminished, providing Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives with their largest lead over the party since the 2024 general election and significantly benefiting Labour, according to the latest Ipsos poll, reports BritPanorama.
The survey indicates Reform’s support has dropped to 20 per cent, with the Conservatives at 24 per cent, while Labour leads with 32 per cent. This suggests that if a general election were held today, Andy Burnham’s Labour could secure a substantial majority, as indicated by political consultancy Electoral Calculus projecting a Labour majority of 134 MPs—down from the 167 majority achieved in July 2024.
Research director Keiran Pedley commented on the findings, noting a “striking change” in the political landscape, particularly underscoring Labour’s resurgence under Burnham, which consolidates left-leaning voters. Observing the decline of Reform’s support, he pointed to “tectonic plates” shifting within British politics.
Pedley elaborated that the Conservatives are now clearly positioned in second place, rather than Reform UK, which reflects recent changes on the right. However, he cautioned against overreacting to any single poll, highlighting the current volatility in British politics.
Only a year ago, Reform was polling above 30 per cent, positioning Farage as a potential frontrunner for prime minister. The latest Ipsos findings follow a YouGov poll indicating that voters no longer view Reform as a “main party.” Prior to Labour’s shift in leadership, Reform’s support was already declining.
Since Burnham took the helm, Labour has capitalised on Reform’s losses amid a downturn in Green Party support. Reform has faced multiple challenges, including a standards investigation linked to a £5 million donation from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne. Furthermore, police inquiries involve deputy leader Richard Tice and Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick, with a recent Channel 4 investigation prompting resignations over illegal donations and an ITV investigation revealing inappropriate conduct among party members.
In response to the poll, Raheem Kassam, a close ally of Farage, expressed his concerns, warning that failure to secure a win could lead to capital flight from the UK. He claimed the poll might not accurately represent public sentiment, cautioning that those who support the “uniparty” will face dire consequences in the future.
Meanwhile, the Green Party, under Zack Polanski’s leadership, recorded only 8 per cent support, significantly down from its previous highs, while the Liberal Democrats lag at 9 per cent, at risk of losing nearly half their seats in the upcoming election.
The shifting dynamics illustrate a complex electoral landscape as parties adapt to shifting voter sentiments.
