Russia’s biggest cities are becoming harder places to buy a new home, even as demand weakens. In the first nine months of 2026, the average asking price for new-build housing in the country’s 15 cities with more than 1 million residents rose to 231,200 roubles per square metre — up 10.5% year on year.
Yet fewer buyers signed contracts, developers’ revenues fell and new projects were launched at a sharply slower pace. The figures reveal a market in which prices are being held up by rising construction and financing costs, while households are increasingly unable or unwilling to pay them.
Prices climb as transactions shrink
The figures, reported by Kommersant on 18 October 2026, were based on data from a specialist platform that monitors and analyses Russia’s property market.
The average price of homes that were actually sold in the 15 cities reached 198,000 roubles per square metre between January and September, an annual increase of 10.8%. The difference between advertised prices and completed-sale prices was 16.7%, broadly unchanged from 16.9% a year earlier.
That gap shows how far developers’ price expectations can sit above the level at which transactions are completed. It does not mean every buyer secures the same discount, but it points to a persistent negotiation between sellers trying to protect their returns and buyers whose borrowing capacity is under strain.
The urban market is performing more strongly on price than Russia as a whole. In September, the average price of newly built homes sold nationwide was about 200,000 roubles per square metre, almost unchanged from a year earlier. The largest cities, by contrast, recorded much steeper increases.
St Petersburg saw the sharpest rise in advertised prices among the markets highlighted in the data, with the average reaching 388,900 roubles per square metre, up 21.7% year on year. In Moscow, the average rose 15.8% to 727,900 roubles per square metre.
Developers sell less and earn less
Sales volumes moved in the opposite direction. A total of 212,900 participation agreements for new-build projects were signed in the 15 cities during the first nine months of the year, 5% fewer than in the same period of 2025.
Combined developer revenue from housing sales fell by 2.3% to 2.51 trillion roubles. The drop in revenue was smaller than the fall in the number of contracts because higher prices partly offset the lower volume of sales. In simple terms, fewer homes changed hands, but those that did were sold at higher prices.
That strategy has clear limits. A rising price per square metre cannot compensate indefinitely for a shrinking pool of buyers. If homes take longer to sell, developers have more capital tied up in unfinished or completed buildings, while interest and other project costs continue to accumulate.
Irina Dobrokhotova, founder of , said the number of new construction projects launched in Russia’s cities of more than 1 million people fell by 30% in 2026 compared with the previous year. The decline suggests that developers are becoming more cautious about starting projects while sales are uncertain and financing remains expensive.
Why weaker demand has not brought cheaper homes
Falling demand does not automatically lead to lower prices when the costs of bringing new housing to market are rising. Developers face higher bills for materials, labour and land. International sanctions have also complicated access to some foreign construction equipment, finishing materials and established logistics routes, making replacement supplies and alternative arrangements more costly or less predictable.
Financing adds another constraint. Under Russia’s project-financing model, banks lend against individual developments while buyers’ payments are held in escrow accounts. When sales slow, money accumulates more gradually. That can increase the financial burden on a project and weaken the assumptions behind the original financing plan.
Developers are therefore caught between two risks. Cutting prices may reduce the income needed to service construction loans and complete buildings. Keeping prices high may lengthen sales periods and leave more flats unsold. The 16.7% gap between advertised and completed-sale prices is a visible sign of that tension.
Mortgage conditions make the problem more acute for households. The cost of a new flat depends not only on the advertised price, but also on the interest rate, deposit and monthly repayment. When borrowing becomes more expensive, a household can be priced out even if the headline price has risen only moderately.
The available figures show a widening strain between prices, sales and affordability. They do not, by themselves, establish that new homes are beyond the reach of a majority of Russians. They do show that the market is becoming more difficult for buyers whose incomes or access to credit have not kept pace with the cost of housing.
A short-term buffer with long-term consequences
Reducing the number of new developments can protect builders from taking on fresh risks in a weak market. It also narrows the future supply of housing. If demand remains subdued, fewer launches may prevent an even larger build-up of unsold stock. But if prices stay high, a smaller pipeline will not necessarily make homes more affordable; it may simply leave buyers with fewer properties to choose from.
The adjustment is already taking place through several channels at once: fewer agreements, lower total revenue, a sizeable gap between asking and completed-sale prices, and a sharp fall in new project launches. None of these signals points to a healthy expansion of the market. Nor do they yet amount to a conventional price collapse, because cost and financing pressures are limiting how far developers can cut.
That leaves Russia’s new-build sector in a difficult equilibrium. Developers need high prices to preserve project economics, while buyers need lower prices and more manageable credit conditions to return in larger numbers. If sales continue to weaken, the key question will be whether growing inventories eventually force deeper discounts — or whether the retreat from new construction keeps supply tight and prices elevated.
