An article published by the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti on 25 September 2026 discussed a potential war between Russia and Lithuania under the headline “Russia faces another special military operation. It will be very short.” The article followed a decision by Lithuania’s Seimas to lift a constitutional ban on stationing nuclear weapons in the country.
According to the article, if nuclear warheads were placed in Lithuania, Russia would be forced to act. Its author, Alexander Nosovich, wrote that Russia could choose how to fight and suggested that the Kremlin might avoid deploying troops and instead launch nuclear strikes in response to the stationing of such missiles. The article also argued that the conflict would be short.
The article was later removed. The explanation stated that the author’s material had been deleted because it did not reflect the editorial view, editorial policy or state policy of the Russian Federation.
The accompanying assessment describes the publication as an example of hybrid pressure and nuclear intimidation directed at Lithuania and NATO. It says the article presented possible Russian aggression as a forced response to a decision by Vilnius to allow the deployment of NATO nuclear weapons, thereby shifting responsibility for escalation from Moscow to the Alliance. These are assessments contained in the supplied material, rather than independently verified conclusions.
The assessment also links Lithuania’s selection to its geographical position, including the Suwalki Gap and its border with Russia’s Kaliningrad region. It argues that references to a short conflict and the possible absence of ground forces could indicate an emphasis on asymmetric threats rather than a prolonged territorial campaign. It further suggests that the rapid removal of the article may have been intended to test reactions among European and NATO officials, experts and media while limiting diplomatic risks.
The publication and subsequent deletion do not by themselves establish whether the article represented official Russian policy or an operational plan. The supplied material says the episode may add uncertainty for analysts attempting to distinguish genuine escalation signals from information operations.
