Reform UK has dropped to third place in the polls for the second time in a week after a More in Common survey indicated that Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives have leapfrogged Nigel Farage’s party. The poll placed the Conservatives at 24 per cent, four points behind Labour at 28 per cent, and three points ahead of Reform UK, reports BritPanorama.
Concerningly for Mr. Farage, this same poll conducted a year ago had Reform UK enjoying a comfortable lead at 33 per cent. This marks the first occasion since January 2025 that the Conservatives have maintained a lead over Reform of three points or more, shortly after Ms. Badenoch assumed leadership in November 2024.
The More in Common poll follows a YouGov survey published earlier that week placing Reform in third at 21 per cent, trailing behind the Conservatives on 23 per cent and Labour on 24 per cent. The Tories have bolstered their position following what has been perceived as a strong party conference in Birmingham, where Ms. Badenoch outlined plans to reform inheritance tax and remove the £100,000 earnings cap on childcare.
Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, observed, “The Conservatives seem to be enjoying a conference bounce as they jump to second in our voting intention.” He further added that Ms. Badenoch’s approval rating reached an all-time high of +5, a notable increase despite rival leaders like Burnham and Davey facing declines.
The findings come amidst ongoing concerns regarding Mr. Farage’s standing within his party, particularly due to a series of personal scandals involving donations and business dealings. He is currently subject to a standards investigation regarding a £5 million personal gift from billionaire crypto donor Christopher Harborne. Meanwhile, police investigations are also focusing on Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick and deputy leader Richard Tice alongside other former officials.
In light of these developments, Mr. Tryl noted, “Burnham also leads on gross approval at 40 per cent. Badenoch’s approval now stands at 35 per cent, with Farage trailing at 26 per cent.” The shifting dynamics suggest a potential realignment of support, as the Conservative Party’s reception appears to be improving following last week’s conference.
The Blue Collar Conservatism movement has remarked on a noticeable shift in support from Farage to Badenoch, stating that “the challenge was good for democracy.” They believe that the Conservatives are beginning to address how they lost the public’s trust, while Reform struggles to present a coherent alternative. As voters appear more inclined to look towards the future under Kemi Badenoch rather than the past with Reform, the landscape becomes increasingly competitive.
In a rapidly changing political environment, both parties face pivotal moments as they navigate their strategies ahead of the upcoming electoral contest.
