Sweden is holding an election on Sunday that will determine whether a conservative leader remains in charge and a hard-right party wins ministerial jobs for the first time, or whether the center-left returns to power, reports BritPanorama.
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is seeking a second four-year term at the helm of the European Union nation that is also NATO’s newest member. His predecessor hopes to reclaim the position. As the election approaches, the focus has shifted away from substantive policy discussions toward who will form the government.
More than 8 million people in the nation of about 10.6 million are eligible to vote for the 349-seat parliament in Stockholm, known as the Riksdag, which will elect the next prime minister.
Kristersson has led Sweden since 2022 with a three-party center-right coalition, depending on support from the Sweden Democrats, an anti-immigration party with far-right roots that has attempted to reshape its image for mainstream politics. If the right is re-elected, it expects Cabinet posts this time.
He faces Magdalena Andersson of the center-left Social Democrats, a party traditionally dominant in Swedish politics since World War II. Andersson served as prime minister from 2021 until losing power in the last election.
Analysts note that the campaign has been characterized by a lack of coherence, where fundamental policy topics like health care have been overshadowed by the ongoing debate about which parties will form the next government.
“Crime has come down, inflation has come down. So these topics are not really what people discuss,” said Zeth Isaksson, a sociologist at Stockholm University. “People discuss who is going to be in government, and that’s what the election is about.”
Sweden’s political landscape features two major blocs: a right-wing conglomerate comprising four parties and a left bloc also with four parties. The critical question revolves around which side can secure a majority, as individual parties must obtain a minimum of 4% of the vote to gain parliamentary seats.
On the face of it, “it would be a sensation if the opposition parties, having been ahead in the opinion polls pretty much for four years since the last election, didn’t now win a majority,” noted Nicholas Aylott, an associate professor of political science at Södertörn University.
However, he suggested that an “extremely defensive” campaign by the Social Democrats may have diminished their support, leaving voters questioning why they should back the party. The right-wing bloc hopes to project greater unity compared to its rivals, which may have swayed some voters.
A notable development this election is the potential for the Sweden Democrats, who garnered 20.5% of the vote in 2022—making them the biggest party on the right—to secure Cabinet positions if the political balance remains unchanged.
Kristersson announced in April that his conservative Moderates would welcome their entry into government if the right achieves a majority, although he would retain the prime ministership even if the Sweden Democrats emerge as the stronger entity.
The Sweden Democrats were formed in the 1980s by members involved in right-wing extremist factions, including neo-Nazis. Under the leadership of Jimmie Åkesson since 2005, the party has moderated its rhetoric and expelled overtly racist members.
“There’s some, I won’t say fear, but trepidation, apprehension about the possibility of Sweden Democrat ministers,” Aylott said, which the Social Democrats have recently attempted to leverage in their campaign.
Despite the rise of populist right parties across Europe—evidenced by a far-right victory in a recent state election in Germany—some experts suggest that the Sweden Democrats may have reached their peak, as Isaksson commented.
Regarding international issues such as the war in Ukraine, Aylott remarked that while Sweden views this as a significant security threat, there is broad consensus on supporting Ukraine and notable antipathy towards Russia. The Psychological Defense Agency indicated that the election does not hold particular interest for Russia, given the high levels of public support for Ukraine.
In the days leading up to the election, a report emerged from Expo magazine claiming that a civil servant associated with the Sweden Democrats had disseminated Russian state narratives online. This individual is linked to the party’s coordination office with the government, which has raised eyebrows.
In response, Gustav Gellerbrant, the party’s coordination office head, asserted that the posts were misinterpreted and intended as satire. He also announced parental leave to avoid diverting attention from the campaign.
Kristersson expressed his alignment with the notion that “there is no room for pro-Russian narratives in Sweden,” endorsing Gellerbrant’s decision.
After decades of embracing post-World War II neutrality, Sweden formally joined NATO in 2024, an initiative initiated by Andersson’s administration following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and carried through under Kristersson.
