More Russians are ruling out starting a business as higher taxes, rising costs and expensive credit make salaried work look safer. In September 2026, 40% of respondents said they would not consider opening their own business, up from 34% a year earlier.
The six-percentage-point shift comes from a joint survey by SuperJob and , reported on 14 October by Realnoe Vremya, Vedomosti and Forbes Russia. A survey does not measure the whole economy, but it captures a clear change in how potential entrepreneurs are weighing risk: for a growing share, a regular wage is preferable to uncertain returns from a new venture.
The cost of taking the first step
The pressures are straightforward. Operating expenses have risen, borrowing has become more costly and future demand is harder to predict. A new business must cover premises, equipment, supplies, utilities, administration and, in some cases, staff costs before it has a dependable stream of income. For people with limited savings, those initial outlays can make the prospect of self-employment difficult to justify.
Employment does not guarantee security, but it offers a more predictable calculation. A salary removes much of the immediate burden of financing a business and leaves the employer carrying the risks associated with premises, stock and fluctuating demand. When prices and rules are changing quickly, that difference matters.
Tax changes have added to the calculation. From 1 January 2026, the revenue threshold for exemption from value-added tax was reduced from 60 million to 20 million roubles. Companies and individual entrepreneurs exceeding the new threshold must pay VAT at the general rate of 22%. For a small firm just above the limit, that can affect prices, margins and the decision to expand.
Credit conditions are another constraint. In September, the Bank of Russia’s key rate stood at 14%, while annual inflation was 6.35%, above the central bank’s 4% target. The key rate is not the rate paid by every borrower, but it influences the cost of business loans and the way banks assess new projects. An investment that might have been viable with cheaper finance can instead be delayed, reduced or abandoned.
A small-business sector with a large workforce
The retreat from entrepreneurship matters because small and medium-sized businesses already occupy a substantial place in Russia’s economy. The state institute responsible for supporting the sector puts the number of such businesses at 6.7 million. Some 6.43 million are microenterprises, meaning that roughly 96% of the sector is made up of its smallest firms.
Small and medium-sized businesses employ 27.9 million people, or 38% of those working in the economy. A further 16.88 million people are self-employed. A weaker flow of new businesses therefore has consequences beyond the number of registrations. It can affect investment, competition, hiring and the ability of existing firms to withstand weak demand.
Microenterprises are particularly exposed to rising fixed costs. They commonly have smaller reserves and less bargaining power than larger companies, so higher mandatory payments, rents, tariffs or interest charges can quickly absorb their income. The headline number of registered businesses may remain high even while the sector loses momentum.
Turnover, access to credit, investment levels, the survival of young firms and employment trends will show more about the sector’s health than registrations alone. A large population of very small companies does not necessarily mean that new firms are growing, innovating or creating additional jobs.
Older people and women are more reluctant
The survey shows marked differences between groups. Among respondents over 45, 52% ruled out opening a business altogether. Among younger respondents, the figure ranged from 35% to 41%, depending on the age group: a gap of between 11 and 17 percentage points.
There was also a gender difference. Forty-five per cent of women surveyed rejected the idea of starting a business, compared with 38% of men. The survey records the gap but does not establish its causes. Differences in income and savings, family responsibilities and access to finance may all influence how much risk people are prepared to take.
Interest remains limited even in sectors capable of producing new services and technologies. In favourable conditions, 6% of respondents would choose information technology, 5% trade, and 4% each production or construction. Those figures do not predict the exact number of future businesses, but they indicate how narrow the declared pool of potential founders has become.
That matters for an economy seeking new production, technologies and jobs. If people postpone projects because start-up costs are high, tax rules keep changing and credit is unaffordable, the loss is not limited to one company that never opens. It may also mean fewer competitors, fewer experiments and fewer routes into new markets.
From full-time businesses to cautious side projects
Reports on the survey indicate that this caution could last for at least two years. Instead of making the full jump into self-employment, people may choose smaller projects, run a business alongside paid work or move gradually into independent work. These arrangements reduce personal exposure, but they usually involve less capital and create fewer jobs than a company built to expand.
Andrei Shubin, executive director of the small and medium-sized business association Opora Rossii, linked the falling interest in entrepreneurship to higher costs and economic uncertainty. He warned that the decline could become entrenched if the tax and administrative burden continues to rise. His comments are a sector assessment of the likely direction of travel, rather than independent proof that every individual policy measure has had the same effect.
The test for the Russian government will be whether its support for small business can be measured in more than the number of firms on the register. If potential founders continue to choose wages over investment, the country may retain millions of microenterprises while losing the pipeline of businesses capable of expanding, competing and creating new employment. The immediate shift from 34% to 40% suggests that the cost of beginning is already reshaping that choice.
