A sustained polling boost for the new government is fuelling speculation that Andy Burnham is considering an early general election, as a fall in popularity for Reform UK continues, reports BritPanorama.
The governing party has consistently remained above Nigel Farage’s party for approval since Mr Burnham’s coronation in July, when Labour overtook Reform for the first time since March 2025. A new poll from YouGov now finds Reform would come third in a general election, below the Conservatives. Mr Farage’s party would win 123 seats, compared to 130 for the Tories.
However, the polling also indicates Labour on 241 seats – a loss of 162 from the current total. This would likely result in a hung parliament, with Labour possibly needing to seek a coalition deal with the Greens and Liberal Democrats.
Andy Burnham’s leadership has also affected the ratings of Zack Polanski’s Green Party, which has experienced a decline in support over the past few months. The government has stated it does not intend to call an early election. However, Labour sources recently indicated that the by-election to replace Sir Keir Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras is perceived as a test run for that possibility.
Sir Keir announced he would be leaving parliament earlier this month, after resigning as prime minister and Labour leader to facilitate Mr Burnham’s ascent. Mr Polanski has confirmed he will stand as the Green candidate for the seat next month.
Opposition parties appear to be preparing for potential early elections as well. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey disclosed that a manifesto working group has been formed, stating, “We don’t normally do it this early,” to The Guardian.
Meanwhile, Reform sources suggested that Mr Burnham could be persuaded to call an early election depending on the outcome of the London by-election. They expressed that if Labour’s candidate secures victory over Mr Polanski “convincingly”, it might validate the perception of Labour’s unity among progressive voters.
A Tory source remarked: “[Burnham’s] whole agenda is to consolidate the left. If he continues to constrict the Green vote, it may encourage him to call an early election while the right remains divided.”
Under Sir Keir’s leadership, polling indicated Labour began losing support from left-leaning voters due to issues such as Gaza and welfare spending. This coincided with a notable rise in support for the Greens, which had reached around 14 percent approval in April, compared to Labour’s low of 19 percent at that time.
Pollsters largely forecast Labour will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, having secured nearly 50 percent of the vote there in 2024. However, circumstances have shifted. The Greens captured three London councils from Labour at the recent local elections, boosting their presence in Camden – home to Holborn and St Pancras – from one to eleven seats, while Labour maintained overall control.
Will Labour call an early election?
There are clear advantages for Mr Burnham in calling an early election, especially if Labour holds the Holborn and St Pancras seat. The new prime minister has pledged to enact sweeping changes; however, critics argue that having secured his role with just 24,000 votes from Makerfield and having run uncontested for the Labour leadership, he lacks a national mandate to pursue his agenda.
A general election victory would provide this mandate and an additional two years to implement the policies he has begun to outline. According to current regulations, the next general election must occur by 2029.
Polling suggests it would also be an inopportune moment for Labour’s key political adversaries – Reform and the Greens – given the declining support for both parties. Reform’s approval now sits at its lowest in 20 months, averaging 23 points, while the Greens have dropped to 10 points, down from 14 in April. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have plateaued around 20 points, and the Liberal Democrats at approximately 11.
However, polling expert Sir John Curtice has expressed skepticism regarding Labour’s optimism in light of these trends, asserting that Reform UK could still emerge as the leading party in a nationwide context. “The numbers are just not there,” he stated.
He pointed to Labour’s poor local election results—losing 38 councils—as evidence of dwindling support in traditionally strong areas, which could result in Reform performing well in terms of seats. Mr Burnham, motivated by a longstanding desire to become Prime Minister, might find calling an election now risky, as it poses a “bad deal” by risking three years for the potential of gaining two.
