Holborn and St Pancras by-election could be pivotal for Green Party’s Zack Polanski
The upcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election may prove critical for Zack Polanski as he aims to secure his position as the Green Party’s candidate, a situation described as “make or break” by polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, reports BritPanorama.
Sir John stated that the contest would serve as a “severe test” for the Green Party leader, suggesting that the party may face significant challenges given Labour’s historical dominance in the area. The by-election has been triggered by the resignation of former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer.
Polling trends from the last general election suggest that the Greens may emerge as the primary challenger to Labour. Sir John noted that although Polanski has a chance of winning, it is “probably not a high chance.”
He likened the current situation to the recent Makerfield by-election, which saw Andy Burnham attempting a comeback to Westminster. Sir John commented, “Polanski here would be taking on less of a challenge than Burnham did [in Makerfield].” The comparison underscores the intensity of the electoral battleground facing the Green Party.
Historically, Labour has held the extensive London constituency with a voting share consistently above 40% since its creation in 1983. Starmer captured 64.5% of the vote in 2019, with his majority shrinking in the 2024 election to 48.9%, translating to a reduction from 27,763 votes to 11,572. In 2024, independent candidate Andrew Feinstein secured 18.9%, while the Greens managed 10.4%.
Prof Curtice indicated that Labour would begin as the favourites in this contest but acknowledged that the party might lose some support due to dissatisfaction with its stance on Gaza. He noted that the Greens had experienced a slight decline in support compared to the local elections.
Furthermore, Polanski’s personal popularity has reportedly suffered following controversial comments made in response to an incident involving police and a stabbing suspect. This controversy may impact his campaign as he competes in the by-election.
The recent political landscape reflects a notable shift in voter sentiment, with many former Labour supporters expressing discontent with the party’s response to Israel’s actions during the Gaza conflict. Burnham’s recent public apology regarding Labour’s response demonstrates the ongoing challenges faced by the party in regaining former voters.
In announcing his intent to run, Polanski expressed his deep connection to the constituency, emphasizing the need for leadership that prioritizes the community over corporate interests. He stated, “I know it well and I love it… by electing me, voters will have someone who will always fight their corner.”
Despite yet to be formally selected as the Green Party’s candidate, Polanski’s assertion of confidence appears at odds with reported divisions within the party regarding who should contest the seat.
With Sir Keir announcing his departure from Parliament to focus on international work, the dynamics of this by-election are set to capture national attention as the political landscape continues to evolve.
