Recent polling indicates a “Badenoch Bounce” following what has been described as the most trouble-free Conservative Party conference in years. The Tory party appears united under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, and public attention seems to be shifting positively, with her approval ratings second only to Andy Burnham. A new YouGov poll positions the Conservatives in second place, just ahead of Reform UK, now ranking third, reports BritPanorama.
However, the Conservatives are cautioned against excessive optimism.
Is this good news for the Tories?
Yes, Badenoch’s increasing recognition, impactful policy announcements, and assertive presence have contributed to a gradual resurgence for her party in the polls, alleviating some of the despair following their defeat in the 2024 general election.
In stark contrast to the depths reached in spring 2025, when Reform led the polls significantly, the landscape has changed. Back then, the Tories garnered around 18 per cent while Reform was comfortably above 30 per cent—over 10 points ahead of Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour. Since that time, Reform has eroded public trust, and Burnham has reclaimed some former Labour supporters, reflecting the tangible impact of the Badenoch effect.
Is the country ready to give the Tories a hearing?
Policies perceived as popular, particularly proposals to cut social security and inheritance tax, have resonated with the electorate. The departure of divisive figures such as Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman has contributed to a more unified party image. Despite this, the Conservative brand remains fraught with challenges tied to austerity, Brexit, Partygate, Liz Truss’ mini-budget, along with a history of chaos and confusion during their prior time in office.
Currently, all three main parties are closely grouped within the typical polling margin of error, with Labour slightly leading.
So the Conservatives remain unpopular?
Yes. Their polling figures remain below those seen for Rishi Sunak at the end of his tenure following the general election. The party lost 674 councillors in the 2025 local elections and another 563 this year, with limited successes in parliamentary by-elections, aside from a victory in Aberdeen primarily driven by local issues. Many Conservative frontbench figures lack widespread recognition, suggesting that if a general election were held today, Reform might secure more seats in the Commons, depending on regional swings and tactical voting. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats, despite their own leadership struggles, continue to pose a significant obstacle for the Tories as they seek to regain power.
What should Kemi Badenoch do?
Badenoch needs to restore a reputation for competence with comprehensive, detailed plans for public finances, outlining her intended cuts and their impacts. Moreover, distancing the party from Nigel Farage’s increasingly extreme views will be essential in reassuring voters that supporting the Conservatives will not lead to Farage’s return or that of his “weird” party, as she has characterized it. Additionally, a reassessment of positions on Europe may be prudent, as Brexit remains an unpopular topic, and the party cannot continue to sidestep this issue indefinitely.
The political landscape remains tentative, with shifting allegiances and sentiments needing careful navigation by party leaders as the next elections approach.
