Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has warned that Russia could prepare a provocation against Poland under a “false flag” in order to justify a new mobilisation, according to media reports published on 25 September 2026.
Sikorski reportedly said Warsaw had received numerous signals that Russia was preparing “something big” this year. He did not rule out a staged incident intended to create a pretext for further mobilisation.
Among the possible scenarios he cited were Russian actions in the Baltic states, an attempt to establish a land corridor to Kaliningrad, and strikes against infrastructure near the Polish border. Sikorski said Moscow might seek to act in ways that would make it more difficult for NATO to invoke Article 5. He said Poland and its allies should be prepared for hybrid escalation.
Media report on Sikorski’s statement
Possible scenarios and risks
According to the assessment attributed to Sikorski, Russia might try to extend the conflict beyond Ukraine to create additional leverage over NATO, weaken its political unity and provide a justification for further mobilisation. A false-flag provocation could be used to persuade the Russian public that a new mobilisation was necessary.
Another possible scenario would involve pressure on the Baltic states or an attempt to create a land connection between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region. Such actions could, according to the assessment, test NATO’s response to limited or hybrid attacks without immediately leading to an open conflict with the alliance, while creating new points of tension along its eastern flank.
The source also says that Russia is increasing pressure on Ukraine while creating a risk that the effects of the war could spread to NATO territory. Strikes on transport, energy and other infrastructure in Ukraine near the Polish border could complicate the delivery of Western assistance and increase the risk of Polish territory being hit.
These scenarios are presented as possibilities and allegations attributed to the Polish foreign minister, rather than as confirmed events. The source says that even a serious incident on Polish territory could turn the war against Ukraine into a direct escalation between Russia and NATO.
