Labour leader Andy Burnham has experienced a significant boost in popularity less than a month into his premiership, a trend experts are calling the “Burnham bounce,” as voters respond to his ambitious devolution plans and a commitment to “change politics,” reports BritPanorama.
The new prime minister’s approval ratings have surged, contrasting sharply with those of his predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer. Early polling indicates Burnham’s favourability has jumped to 19 per cent since assuming office, following a dip during the Makerfield by-election. In comparison, Starmer’s ratings had fallen to a stark -41 per cent.
Polling analyst Sir John Curtice noted the swiftness of the Burnham bounce, stating, “There is no doubt there is a Burnham bounce and it has happened quicker than most of us expected.” He attributed part of this phenomenon to Burnham’s personal appeal and his policies, alongside the impact of Starmer’s absence.
Burnham, previously the mayor of Manchester, was already one of the UK’s most popular politicians before his appointment, renowned for his leadership during the Covid pandemic. His prior standing appears to be bolstering his current position, as he attempts to navigate a series of policy commitments amid growing competition from Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage.
Could Labour win again under Burnham?
Labour’s fortunes under the former leadership had faltered significantly, particularly against Reform UK, which has gained traction through recent electoral victories. Current polling shows the parties in a tight race, with Labour and Reform UK both at 22 per cent, while the Conservatives, led by Kemi Badenoch, closely trail at 21 per cent.
The pressure is on Burnham to sustain this momentum. He has launched his government with numerous policy initiatives designed to resonate with voters, yet the challenge remains to secure funding for these plans—an immediate test awaiting his forthcoming Autumn Budget.
There is evidence of responsiveness among the electorate to Burnham’s hopeful rhetoric. However, the durability of that support hinges on tangible delivery, marking a crucial juncture for his administration.
Where is Andy Burnham most popular?
Unconventionally, Burnham enjoys his highest approval in London, where his favourability stands at plus 2 per cent, contrasting with a lower sentiment in the North at -6 per cent. While these figures might seem modest, they surpass those of other political leaders—Farage at -39 per cent, Badenoch at -19 per cent, and Zack Polanski at -26 per cent. For context, Starmer’s rating sat at -49 per cent when he resigned.
Burnham’s popularity in London may reflect the demographic makeup of the capital, teeming with younger, left-leaning voters. As Labour’s standing improves, the Green Party has seen a decline, falling to 13 per cent from a peak of 21 per cent in March. This shift may indicate that Burnham’s stances on critical issues have resonated with former Labour supporters now returning to the fold.
What’s behind the ‘Burnham bounce’?
A confluence of factors has contributed to Burnham’s early success. Firstly, the unpopularity of Sir Keir Starmer created a vacuum that Burnham was quick to fill. Luke Tryl, director at pollsters More in Commons, remarked, “No doubt Burnham’s first week cut through,” capitalizing on the attention Starmer had struggled to command.
Before taking office, Burnham had a relatively strong net approval rating of -7 per cent, compared to Starmer’s -20. Following an initial dip during the Makerfield by-election, Burnham has regained ground, re-establishing his approval at 19 per cent after announcing key utility cuts and fare caps, showcasing a strong focus on cost-of-living challenges—a priority for many voters.
Though the initial support for Burnham is notable, the longevity of this positive reception will depend heavily on his administration’s ability to fulfil its promises in the months ahead. Facing a pivotal moment, the stakes for navigating these political waters remain heightened.
