Russian companies’ total liabilities have neared 293 trillion rubles, a figure that surpasses the country’s forecast gross domestic product for the year, according to data published by the state statistics service Rosstat on June 8. The debt has grown faster than businesses’ ability to service it, the data showed, reflecting mounting strain from high interest rates and a rising tax burden.
The total is split into two main components. Bank loans and long-term borrowing account for 152 trillion rubles. The remainder consists of accounts payable — money owed to suppliers, contractors, workers in unpaid wages, and the state in the form of accrued but unpaid taxes and insurance premiums. This portion, described as everyday debt, has proven most vulnerable. Overdue accounts payable surged nearly 18% over the past year to reach 7 trillion rubles.
Interest rates tighten the screw
Analysts attribute the growing debt burden to the central bank’s prolonged tight monetary policy. Inflation, driven by large-scale unsecured spending on the defense sector amid Russia’s war against Ukraine, forced the regulator to raise its key interest rate to 21% in late 2024. Although the rate has since been reduced to 14.25%, borrowing costs remain prohibitive. Companies now allocate up to 37% of their profits to interest payments alone — more than a third of earnings goes toward keeping afloat rather than investment.
Tax pressure adds to corporate strain
Additional pressure came from an increase in the corporate profit tax rate from 20% to 22% at the start of 2026, coupled with stricter tax enforcement. In this environment, businesses prioritize tax payments to avoid account freezes, delaying payments to suppliers and creditors. As a result, overdue receivables across supply chains have risen to 4 trillion rubles, and many companies now demand advance payment to hedge against partner defaults.
Domino effect across sectors
Manufacturing is the hardest-hit sector, with 2.5 trillion rubles in overdue debt, followed by trade, mining, and construction. The mechanism resembles a classic domino effect, with large corporations and state customers deliberately delaying payments to preserve liquidity. Small and medium-sized enterprises, lacking financial buffers, effectively become free lenders to larger players and are the first to collapse when cash flow dries up. The share of problem loans in the small-business segment has already reached 19%.
Broader economic fallout
The debt crisis is now affecting ordinary citizens. Aggregate net profit of enterprises fell by a quarter over the past year to 5.2 trillion rubles, while gross domestic product contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026. Businesses are cutting costs on staff first: real wage growth slowed to 5.1%, and indexation programs are being frozen. At the same time, companies pass on higher debt servicing and tax costs to consumers through price increases, fueling inflation and eroding living standards from both sides.
If the trend continues, analysts expect the economy to shift from isolated corporate distress to a systemic phase of non-payments, where the bankruptcy of one large debtor drags down dozens of counterparties. For now, the regulator is balancing between curbing inflation and preserving business activity as the debt tally keeps rising — with the latest data offering little relief for the corporate sector.
