A poll in France has indicated strong prospects for Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon to reach the second round of the presidential election, according to media reports published on 28 September 2026.
The survey by international agency Toluna Harris Interactive reportedly placed Le Pen at about 35–36% in the first round across the scenarios modelled, with Mélenchon on 17–18%. Édouard Philippe was reported to receive between 13% and 16%.
The results indicate simultaneous strengthening of the political extremes and weakening of the centrist camp, according to the source. Media reports linked the trend to economic difficulties, the rising cost of living and broader political instability in France.
Commentary accompanying the poll said that increased support for Le Pen and Mélenchon reflected a crisis among centrist forces, which are entering the presidential campaign without a single candidate and with their support divided among several contenders. It also warned that continued fragmentation could leave centrist forces without a representative in the second round, even if their combined support remained substantial.
Read the reported poll analysis
