Labour has experienced a marked improvement in opinion polls since Andy Burnham assumed the role of prime minister in July. A recent tracker indicates a seven-point “Burnham bounce,” lifting the party from an average of 19 per cent to an average of 26 per cent, reports BritPanorama.
Burnham’s emergence has ended Nigel Farage’s 16-month lead in opinion polls, with Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool reflecting this newfound success. However, securing the backing of merely a quarter of potential voters raises questions about the robustness of this support.
According to YouGov, Labour’s lead over Reform has increased to five points, standing at 27 per cent compared to Reform’s 22 per cent. Labour insiders are encouraged that Burnham’s recent speech has solidified the party’s standing, evidently pushing Reform to a clear second place.
YouGov is just one poll, though?
It is imprudent to examine a singular poll in isolation, which is why an average perspective is more insightful when assessing the Burnham bounce since July. Besides YouGov, two other polls conducted post-Burnham’s positive conference speech also indicate slight gains for Labour.
Opinium for The Observer places Labour at 30 per cent, a two-point increase, while Reform sits at 25 per cent, up one. Similarly, Find Out Now reports Labour at 27 per cent, three points up, while Reform remains unchanged at 23 per cent.
After several weeks where Labour support appeared stagnant following Burnham’s transition from Keir Starmer, these three polls suggest a modest revival coinciding with the leader’s announcement regarding an “adjustment” to the triple lock for state pension uprating and detailed plans for a national social care service.
Where has Labour’s support come from?
The so-called Burnham bounce aligns with what has been termed the “Polanski slump,” with data presenting circumstantial support for Burnham’s ability to reclaim discontented Labour voters from the Green Party. There is also evidence, albeit smaller, of support shifting away from the Liberal Democrats and Reform.
While the exact movements between the parties remain elusive—complicated by fluctuating responses of “don’t know” or “won’t vote”—Peter Kellner, a noted polling expert, shared intriguing insights from a Norstat survey conducted after the 2024 election, reinterviewing 5,500 respondents between 4 and 16 September, a period following the bulk of the Burnham bounce.
This survey highlighted a significant shift toward middle-class graduates supporting Labour, even as it signaled a loss of more support to Reform and the Conservatives than to the Greens and Liberal Democrats. It appears that Labour has been more successful in winning back those disaffected by the Greens and Lib Dems than those who shifted to the right.
As such, the data suggests that potential gains from right-leaning voters now outweigh those from the left. This is particularly significant in constituencies where Labour faces challenges from both Reform and the Tories, where a defector voting for Reform deflates opposition numbers while boosting Labour’s tally.
