At the end of September 2025, Moldova will hold parliamentary elections that could determine the country’s long-term trajectory. The vote is shaping up as a contest between pro-European forces and political blocs seeking closer ties with Moscow, raising the stakes for both domestic reforms and regional stability.
Pro-European bloc pushes for EU membership by 2030
The ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), led by parliamentary speaker Igor Grosu and supported by Prime Minister Dorin Recean, has built its campaign around advancing reforms aimed at securing Moldova’s entry into the European Union by 2030. PAS highlights its focus on fighting corruption, modernizing the economy, expanding infrastructure and social programs, and strengthening the country’s institutions. For its leaders, political power is presented as responsibility, with membership in the EU described as both realistic and attainable within the next five years.
Rival blocs seek a return to past alliances
Challenging PAS are two opposition alliances: the Platform for Moldova, led by former president Igor Dodon, and the Alternative bloc, headed by Chișinău mayor Ion Ceban. These groups bring together figures with long political careers but also records of corruption allegations, opaque financial dealings and longstanding connections to Moscow. Among them are former Gagauzia leader Irina Vlah, ex-communist president Vladimir Voronin, businessman Vasile Tarlev, former prime minister Ion Chicu and former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo. Their platforms emphasize a reversal of Moldova’s European course and the restoration of influence lost after previous election defeats.
Moscow’s diminishing trust in Dodon
Once considered a key Kremlin ally, Dodon has recently faced waning support in Moscow. Competing factions within Russia’s leadership have questioned his effectiveness, and financial backing once channeled through Dmitry Kozak has been curtailed. Sergei Kiriyenko, now overseeing Russian policy toward Moldova, has reportedly taken a harder line, leaving Dodon politically vulnerable and dependent on demonstrating renewed utility to his Russian patrons. This dynamic has weakened his domestic position and cast doubt on his ability to unify pro-Moscow forces.
Ion Ceban’s moderate image masks external funding ties
Ion Ceban, presenting himself as a moderate alternative, has also faced scrutiny over his financial backers. According to Western analysts and institutions such as the US Treasury, his party has benefited indirectly from Russian-linked political networks. Reports suggest funding routes through businessman Vugar Novruzov and channels connected to Transnistria, which remains under Moscow’s control. While Ceban’s rhetoric is less overtly pro-Kremlin than Dodon’s, the mechanisms of support appear consistent with Russia’s broader efforts to shape Moldova’s political landscape.
Sandu warns of Russian interference campaign
President Maia Sandu has warned that Russia is preparing a large-scale interference operation to sway the upcoming elections. Speaking in late July, she cited intelligence indicating plans involving illegal financing through cryptocurrencies estimated at around €100 million, voter bribery, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, falsified documents and coordinated use of social media to amplify anti-European narratives. If confirmed, these efforts would mark one of the most aggressive attempts by Moscow to influence Moldova’s democratic processes since independence.
A pivotal choice for Moldova’s future
The elections leave Moldovan voters facing a stark decision: whether to continue pursuing integration with the European Union and the reforms it demands, or to revert to an era when political direction was heavily influenced by Moscow. With the credibility of institutions and the country’s geopolitical orientation on the line, the outcome of the September vote will resonate far beyond Moldova’s borders.
