Confidential disclosures reveal Beijing’s role in strengthening Belarusian arms output
China has helped Belarus establish industrial-scale production of munitions destined for Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to confidential data shared with German media on 17 November. Deutsche Welle reported that Matvei Kupreichik, a representative of the BelPol association of former Belarusian security officers, disclosed that Chinese assistance enabled Minsk to launch annual manufacturing of 240,000 152-millimetre artillery shells and 240,000 122-millimetre rockets for Russia’s Grad system—nearly half a million units a year produced at a single Belarusian plant. Kupreichik said similar production lines have been activated at another facility, though the output consists of inert “blanks” without explosive fillings, which are then shipped to Russian defence plants.
The data suggest Belarus lacks the capacity to produce explosives at scale and can only supply empty casings. Kupreichik added that the manufacturing lines were purchased from China and installed by Chinese engineers after Belarusian specialists failed to assemble them. He stressed that Beijing deployed ten engineers to supervise the start-up and continues to monitor quality control on the ground. The munitions, he said, are assembled under Russia’s state defence orders, deepening the military partnership between Moscow and Minsk. The revelations accompany reporting in DW, which has highlighted China’s expanding support for Russia’s war effort through economic and military channels.
China’s involvement in Belarusian production lines fits into a broader pattern of alignment between Moscow and Beijing. Russian forces rely heavily on sustained supplies of artillery ammunition, and Chinese technology has been repeatedly flagged by Western governments as a key enabler of Moscow’s ability to continue the conflict. The disclosures raise new concerns for NATO, whose eastern flank faces growing pressure from expanding defence cooperation within the emerging CRINK axis—China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Expanding Sino-Russian cooperation and its global security implications
Western officials have repeatedly warned that Russia would struggle to sustain its war without external partners. On 12 November, Finland’s defence minister Antti Häkkänen said Chinese financial and technological support has become indispensable to Moscow’s military budget, arguing that Russia could not continue the conflict “for long” relying solely on its own resources. He added that India’s expanded oil trade provides Moscow with additional revenues, but that China is consciously financing Russia’s war effort, supplying military components, conducting joint exercises and coordinating across strategic theatres from the Arctic to the Indo-Pacific.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy raised similar concerns during the UN Security Council session on 23 September, saying that “China is a powerful country on which Russia is now completely dependent,” and that Beijing could force Moscow to stop the war if it chose to. German foreign minister Johann Wadephul also urged Beijing on 21 August to pressure the Kremlin into accepting a ceasefire, stating that China “must finally recognise its responsibility” in ending Russia’s aggression.
The alignment deepened at the 25th SCO summit in Tianjin and during the military parade in Beijing marking the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. The events showcased military cooperation among China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, with Beijing using the parade to project strategic strength and signal its ability to rival the United States. Russian President Vladimir Putin used the occasion to discuss expanded military coordination with Chinese and North Korean leaders.
North Korea has already sent around 13,000 military personnel to Russia in 2024 and a further 6,000 engineers, builders and sappers in 2025, alongside deliveries of ammunition, equipment and cruise missiles. Combined with China’s industrial assistance to Belarus and its supply of dual-use goods to Russia, the emerging network of authoritarian partnerships is reshaping the security landscape in Europe and beyond, complicating Western efforts to constrain Moscow’s war capabilities.
