Reform UK and the Greens are no longer considered “main parties,” with voters appearing to lose faith in Nigel Farage’s chances of becoming prime minister, reports BritPanorama.
According to the latest YouGov polling, only Labour (90 per cent) and the Tories (86 per cent) are now viewed as main parties capable of forming a government among a majority of voters.
The most significant decline in confidence was reported for Reform UK, considered a potential main party by only 44 per cent of voters, down 17 per cent from the previous month.
Meanwhile, Zack Polanski’s Green Party has slipped to less than a quarter (16 per cent) of the public viewing them as a main party, a decrease of eight points.
The Liberal Democrats continue to be seen as outside the main party arena, despite having over 70 MPs, with only 34 per cent recognition as a main party, down four points during a month when Sir Ed Davey faced a potential leadership challenge.
This shift reflects changing attitudes towards the two populist parties on both the left and right, particularly Reform, whose support has collapsed by 12 points in a year. Voters no longer view Mr. Farage as a viable candidate for prime minister.
The decline in support for Reform follows a series of scandals over party donations, including an investigation into Mr. Farage by the standards commissioner and police inquiries involving Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick and deputy leader Richard Tice.
A Channel 4 undercover sting concerning alleged illegal donations led to the departure of Mr. Farage’s chief of staff Dan Jukes and policy director James Orr, while an ITV investigation revealed issues of systemic racism within the party.
YouGov noted, “While trends in recent voting intention polls still have a way to go before a ‘return to a two-party system’ can be truly declared, and the likelihood of a hung parliament falls, perceptions of the party system are already heading that way.”
The polling also illustrates public attitudes towards coalitions. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has expressed a preference for a second election rather than forming a coalition with Reform, and Labour Prime Minister Andy Burnham has ruled out any deal with the Greens unless they abandon their controversial conference motion branding “Zionism as racism,” which he has called antisemitic.
YouGov further stated, “Of potential coalition combinations polled, none gain majority or even plurality support from the public. Nonetheless, some are less unpopular than others.”
A coalition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, where Labour is the largest party with Mr. Burnham as prime minister, splits public opinion, as 42 per cent support such a government in a hung parliament, while another 42 per cent oppose it.
Conversely, Conservative-led coalitions are viewed less favourably. YouGov reported, “Just a quarter of Britons (25-26 per cent) are in favour of Kemi Badenoch leading coalitions with the Liberal Democrats or Reform, compared to around six in ten (58-61 per cent) being opposed to such arrangements.”
Current Conservative supporters show preference for a coalition with the Liberal Democrats (68 per cent) over Reform (60 per cent). In contrast, Lib Dem supporters overwhelmingly oppose a repeat of the Cameron-Clegg government, with 58 per cent disapproving, although 36 per cent voice support.
With Mr. Burnham advocating for electoral reform to encourage multi-party governments, polling indicates that this concept remains unpopular among voters; 53 per cent prefer a single-party government, while only 25 per cent support coalition governance.
