A source assessment says continued Russian air strikes near the Polish border are intended to intimidate residents of Poland’s eastern voivodeships and reduce their readiness to resist possible military aggression. The assessment does not provide independent evidence for that alleged intention.
According to media reports cited in the source, on 28 September 2026 a Russian jet-powered drone struck Ukrainian territory approximately 2 kilometres from the Dorohusk–Yahodyn border crossing with Poland. Warsaw then scrambled military aircraft and placed air-defence systems on heightened readiness. Polish airspace was not violated, but operations at airports in Lublin and Rzeszow were suspended for approximately 40 minutes.
The source says this was not the first Russian strike near the Polish border in September, and that the repeated incidents have increased Poland’s concerns about the security of border infrastructure. The reports cited are available from Deutsche Welle and Nexta.
The assessment argues that strikes a few kilometres from the Polish border create direct security risks for Poland because Russian drones are operating close to NATO territory. It says that, even without a violation of Polish airspace, a deviation by a drone or missile could cause an incident on Alliance territory. These are analytical claims presented in the source, rather than independently verified conclusions.
It also argues that repeated incidents could allow Russia to assess the speed and nature of Poland’s and NATO’s responses without directly striking Alliance territory. According to the assessment, each incident can prompt the scrambling of aircraft, increased air-defence readiness and temporary restrictions on airport operations, while raising concerns about possible damage to NATO territory and further escalation.
