Reform UK would fall behind both Labour and the Conservatives if a general election were held today, new polling suggests, in a major blow to Nigel Farage, reports BritPanorama.
YouGov’s latest large-scale seat poll predicts the party would secure just 123 seats, sliding from the top spot to third place.
This marks a stark difference from last year’s polling, which suggested that Reform UK would form the largest party in parliament, followed by Labour and the Conservatives.
In a more favourable scenario for Labour, the party is projected to secure 241 seats if a general election were held today, while the Tories would remain in second place with 130 seats.
However, the MRP poll indicates that the UK may be heading towards a hung parliament, with Labour likely needing support from the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party to form a government after losing a predicted 162 seats.
The 2025 data previously forecasted Reform UK would secure 311 seats, surpassing Labour with 144 seats and the Tories with only 45.
In further setbacks for Reform UK, the poll suggests Tory defectors Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman would likely lose their seats to their former party.
Patrick English, head of elections at YouGov, commented that there “just simply isn’t” a viable path for Reform and the Tories to form a coalition capable of securing a majority.
He noted, “YouGov’s latest projections put Labour clearly ahead of both Reform and the Conservatives in terms of seats, while being only a fraction ahead of each on vote share.”
Furthermore, he stated, “While Labour alone remain well short of a majority, there are a wide range of possible ‘coalition of the left’ options open to them to build a majority in a way where there just simply isn’t for Reform and the Conservatives on the right.”
This comes after Reform UK recorded its worst result in YouGov polling for two years, following months of turbulence for the party.
The newest poll released earlier this week placed their support at 21 percent, which puts them neck-and-neck with the Tories, both trailing Labour, who currently sit at 23 percent.
In third place is the Green Party, up three points with 14 percent support, while the Liberal Democrats hold 12 points, down by one.
This latest polling reflects the lowest share YouGov has recorded for Reform UK since the pollster resumed its voting intention tracker in January 2025. This shift comes just days after Farage’s individual popularity plummeted to a record low.
Mr Farage now has a net favourability rating of -45, which echoes Sir Keir Starmer’s score just before his resignation as prime minister, down from a rating of -31 this time last year. Britons are now nearly three times as likely to view him negatively compared to positively.
