Labour surpasses Reform in latest polls
Labour, under the leadership of Prime Minister Andy Burnham, has surged ahead of Reform in the polls, marking a notable shift in political dynamics as the party captures a lead for the first time in over a year, reports BritPanorama.
A YouGov poll released on Monday shows Labour with a 24-point share compared to Reform’s 22 points, creating a two-point lead. This follows similar findings from an Ipsos poll on Sunday and an Opinium poll on Saturday, which demonstrated a three-point and a two-point lead respectively. With five national polls indicating Labour’s advantage since Burnham’s appointment as Prime Minister, this marks a significant boost for the party.
Reform had overtaken Labour’s popularity in April 2025, just months after the previous Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer achieved a decisive victory in the general election. Burnham’s ascension has coincided with a downturn for Reform, whose leader, Nigel Farage, has seen his personal popularity wane, particularly following his resignation as the MP for Clacton, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Among the Greens, there appears to be a decline as well, with their support dropping from 21 points in late February to just 12 points in the latest YouGov figures. The polling suggests that a segment of former Green voters, about 16%, alongside 12% of Liberal Democrat voters, may now be shifting their allegiance back to Labour under Burnham’s leadership.
Notably, support among former Labour voters has risen significantly, from 49% to 60%, since Burnham took office. His appeal seems particularly strong among younger voters, with support from the 18 to 24 age group increasing from 14% to 25% over a comparable timeframe.
Anthony Wells, head of politics and elections at YouGov, stated in *The Times*: “What you see in the numbers is not only that Labour has increased its vote share but both the Greens and the Liberal Democrats have seen a substantial drop in their support, which had been boosted by Labour defectors.”
The rising popularity of Labour under Burnham has prompted discussions regarding the potential for an early election, which could solidify his mandate for the ambitious reforms he has proposed. Timing poses a challenge for Farage, who also faces a parliamentary standards investigation that could complicate his anticipated return to Westminster.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives are regaining some ground, having settled at 21 points, just three points behind Labour. Leader Kemi Badenoch has enjoyed a revival in personal popularity, recovering from a low of -26 points to an average net approval rating of 1 point.
If Burnham decides to call a general election before his term concludes in 2029, it could lead to a traditional Labour versus Conservative contest, despite the more fragmented political landscape observed in local elections of late.
