TOKYO— Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is reportedly considering an early general election, with discussions around a potential vote in February, according to the leader of her party’s coalition partner. This would mark Takaichi’s first electoral challenge since becoming Japan’s first female prime minister in October, reports BritPanorama.
The anticipated election provides an opportunity for Takaichi to leverage the strong public approval ratings she has garnered since her appointment. Her tough stance on China has resonated with right-wing voters but has also escalated tensions with the regional giant.
Hirofumi Yoshimura, head of the Japan Innovation Party, expressed that he sensed a shift in Takaichi’s perspective on the election timing during a meeting. He stated, “I wouldn’t be surprised if she made the decision as reported by the media,” referencing a Yomiuri newspaper report suggesting possible election dates of February 8 or 15.
Details surrounding the election timeline remain vague. Takaichi did not confirm any specific dates during a recent interview, emphasizing the urgency of executing the supplementary budget aimed at boosting the economy. “At present, I am focusing on the immediate challenge of ensuring that the public feels the benefits of our stimulus policies aimed at cushioning the blow of inflation,” she stated.
Election would complicate spending plans
Concerns regarding the impact of an early election on budget approvals were raised by opposition leader Tetsuo Saito. He cautioned that holding the election could jeopardize the timely passage of Japan’s budget, critical as the economy navigates a challenging phase. Takaichi’s proposed $783 billion budget includes significant spending programs but could face delays if an election disrupts the legislative process.
Japan’s economy has shown resilience in the face of higher U.S. tariffs, yet ongoing food inflation has strained consumer spending. Should Takaichi fail to approve the budget by the end of March, her government might be forced to create a stop-gap budget, hindering planned expenditures.
Economic risk from China dispute
The Internal Affairs Ministry has begun preparations for a potential early election, with analysts interpreting this as a confirmation of Takaichi’s plans. Yoshihiko Noda, a prominent opposition figure, indicated he initially expected Takaichi to settle the budget before calling elections but now anticipates a parliamentary dissolution on January 23.
Additionally, tensions with China pose a considerable economic risk. Rising tensions surround trade, particularly regarding rare earth exports crucial to Japan’s economy. Takaichi’s comments in November framing a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan as an existential threat to Japan have further strained relations.
Since then, China has responded with travel advisories for its citizens and export restrictions affecting Japan. Takaichi condemned these measures as violations of international protocols and expressed her government’s commitment to negotiating through diplomatic channels while collaborating with G7 partners to enhance supply chains.
Although the next lower house election is not mandated until October 2028, a decisive victory in an early election could solidify Takaichi’s influence over the coalition government. Her Liberal Democratic Party, alongside Ishin, currently holds a slim majority in the lower house but is in a minority in the upper house.
Having ascended to the premiership amid a series of electoral losses experienced by her predecessor, Takaichi has yet to contest a national election, setting the stage for a significant political moment ahead.
