French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk arrived in Chișinău on August 27 to mark Moldova’s Independence Day, a month before parliamentary elections. Their joint visit, which included talks with President Maia Sandu, was designed to reaffirm backing for Moldova’s pro-European trajectory and signal that the country will not be left alone in the face of Russian pressure. The three leaders pledged continued technical and financial support, condemned Russian interference and stressed that Moldova’s European choice is irreversible, a message directly aimed at Moscow.
A decisive test for Moldova’s European orientation
The September 28 parliamentary elections are viewed across Europe as a watershed moment that will determine whether Moldova consolidates its EU integration course or risks sliding back into Moscow’s orbit. Pro-Russian parties, including associates of fugitive businessman Ilan Șor and figures like Igor Dodon, Vladimir Voronin, Irina Vlah and Renato Usatîi, are accused of relying on Kremlin resources to destabilize the political scene. Western diplomats warn that these operations go beyond normal pluralism, constituting a deliberate attempt to reverse Moldova’s European integration.
Roughly half a million Moldovans abroad, mostly in EU states, often play a decisive role in elections. This makes the diaspora a prime target of disinformation campaigns, online attacks against electoral systems, and attempts to disrupt polling stations abroad. Analysts note that Kremlin-aligned actors have developed multi-layered strategies to suppress turnout and discredit results should pro-European forces prevail.
Moldova and Ukraine on the same track to Europe
For Brussels, Moldova’s trajectory is inseparable from that of Ukraine. Both states face Russian aggression and hybrid threats ranging from disinformation to energy blackmail and cyberattacks. EU officials increasingly frame the region as a single “security arc” from the Carpathians to the Black Sea, where deeper integration with EU markets, legal frameworks and infrastructure limits Russia’s capacity to destabilize.
The August 27 visit highlighted the shared track: synchronised reforms in justice and anti-corruption, energy interconnectors with Romania, customs cooperation and joint border management, as well as cyber and hybrid threat coordination. Leaders in Chișinău stressed that the stability of Moldova and the security of Ukraine are intertwined, with the outcome of Moldova’s elections set to influence the pace of both countries’ accession processes.
Strategic stakes for Europe and the region
A pro-European victory would consolidate Moldova’s reforms, accelerate access to EU funding instruments and enhance regional resilience. Conversely, a reversal would open the way for Moscow to exploit Transnistria as a corridor for sanctions evasion and illicit trade, with knock-on effects for Romania, Poland and NATO’s eastern flank. Such an outcome could undermine confidence in the EU’s enlargement policy, sending a discouraging signal to other candidates.
Chancellor Merz’s statement that “the doors of the European Union are open” was widely interpreted as a political anchor ahead of the elections. Macron dismissed Kremlin narratives about an “aggressive EU” as lies, while Tusk reminded Moldovans that Poland once stood where they are now, at the threshold of accession amid skepticism. President Sandu underscored that Moldova’s choice is between stability and accountability within the European family or chaos and coercion under Russian influence.
