Ahead of Munster’s previous URC game in Cork against Edinburgh back in February, Ian Costello’s side would have been targeting a home quarter-final rather than simply scraping into the play-offs.
The 34-28 defeat to Edinburgh that followed was the province’s worst performance of the season, an unenviable description in a campaign during which they have also been beaten by Zebre.
Whatever happens against Benetton at Virgin Media Park on Friday night, we’ll be thinking back to that Edinburgh defeat.
If Munster’s season ends this weekend, that feeble first half in particular against the Scots in Round 12 will be the night that stands out. If they get over the line and keep their season alive, the two bonus-points they salvaged late in that game may be worth a whole lot more.
Ahead of that Round 12 game, Munster were in decent shape in the URC table, fifth place and just three points back from the Sharks in fourth, but they have been fighting against a tide since then.
That defeat to Edinburgh was the start of a dreadful URC run in which they lost four out of five games, a couple of which were made even more painful as they came against rivals for the top-eight.
While Munster will be glad to see the back of this season, they’ll also be doing everything in their power to make sure it lasts at least another week, which would mean one more week to enjoy Peter O’Mahony, Stephen Archer and Conor Murray, but more importantly would secure Champions Cup rugby for next season.
As pointed out by defence coach Denis Leamy, Munster have “no divine right” to be in the Champions Cup, but a Champions Cup without one of its most storied teams is almost unthinkable.
As unthinkable as it would be for the province to miss out, there is a very realistic possibility of it happening if they don’t produce a performance and a result against an in-form Italian side that boast a lot of threats in their backline, particularly with the centre pairing of Nacho Brex and Tommaso Menoncello.
One thing Munster do have on their side is time. With their game kicking off at 8pm on Friday, they will head into the final quarter of their match knowing exactly what they need, with Stormers v Cardiff and Edinburgh v Ulster starting at 6pm and 7.35pm respectively.
Here’s every possible outcome for Munster, and how it will impact the play-off picture.
MUNSTER WIN
An easy one to start with. Any kind of win for Munster would be enough for them to get the play-off spot they need.
A bonus-point win could even see them climb as high as fifth in the table, although they would need the Stormers to be beaten by Cardiff for that to happen.
The lowest Munster can finish with a victory would be eighth, meaning they could face any of Leinster, Bulls, Glasgow or the Sharks away from home in a quarter final.
DRAW
There are a few more ifs and buts with this scenario, and bonus-points would also be coming into play.
If Munster draw and score four tries in the process, they would need Edinburgh to lose against Ulster, or win without a tryscoring BP. Additionally, they would need the Stormers to beat Cardiff.
If Munster draw with Benetton and score fewer than four tries, they would need Edinburgh to lose against Ulster, and for Cardiff to either lose against Stormers, or draw without picking up a BP.
MUNSTER LOSE
Again, if this happens, then Munster will need results elsewhere to save them.
With Munster ahead of Cardiff by virtue of points difference, the first criteria is that they need to stay there, matching whatever losing bonus-points they get; If Cardiff lose and pick up two bonus-points in Cape Town, then Munster would need also two bonus points, and so on. If Cardiff draw or win, then Munster also need to do so.
If Munster lose – and match whatever losing bonus-points Cardiff get in Cape Town – they would also need Ulster to do them a favour by either beating Edinburgh or drawing with them and keeping them below four tries.
