The United States has lifted sanctions on Belarus’s state-owned carrier Belavia, a move announced during a meeting in Minsk between special presidential envoy John Cole and Alexander Lukashenko. According to Belarusian state agency BelTA, Cole said the decision was taken directly by President Donald Trump, who instructed his administration to implement it immediately. At the same time, Belarus released 52 political prisoners, including opposition figure Mikalai Statkevich, in what observers see as a strategic concession by Minsk.
Background of the sanctions
Belavia had been under US restrictions since August 2023 and has faced European Union sanctions since December 2021 for its role in orchestrating the migrant crisis on EU borders. Following the forced landing of a Ryanair plane in Minsk in May 2021 and the arrest of opposition journalist Raman Pratasevich, EU countries banned Belavia flights from their airspace, effectively cutting the airline off from its most lucrative routes.
Political calculations in Minsk
Lukashenko’s decision to free political detainees follows his long-standing practice of using prisoner releases as bargaining chips to secure concessions from the West while maintaining a repressive system at home. More than 1,000 political prisoners remain behind bars. Analysts note that Belarus, heavily dependent on Russia, is seeking to expand its diplomatic room for maneuver, as engagement with China alone cannot offset its reliance on Moscow. By signaling openness to Washington, Lukashenko is testing the possibility of broader normalization with the West.
Trump’s approach and implications for the West
During his visit, Cole also delivered a personal message from Trump congratulating Lukashenko on his birthday and expressing hopes for “progress in achieving common goals.” Trump reportedly gifted the Belarusian leader cufflinks bearing the White House emblem. The US envoy said Washington wanted to normalize relations and hoped to reopen its embassy in Minsk.
The US decision, however, remains largely symbolic. Without access to EU airspace, Belavia continues to face a deep operational crisis. Still, Lukashenko is expected to use the move for domestic propaganda, portraying it as a weakening of international pressure and proof of his ability to engage selectively with Western powers.
For the EU, Washington’s step creates a dilemma. It risks undermining the unity of Western policy toward Minsk and could force Brussels to reassess its approach. While Trump’s administration leans on “deal-making diplomacy” even with authoritarian leaders, the EU must now decide whether to follow Washington’s lead or maintain its pressure campaign independently.
