A secret military facility is being built south of Minsk, raising concerns it could host Russia’s new medium-range ballistic missile system known as Oreshnik. On September 10, 2025, the investigative project “Schemes” published findings on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, citing satellite images of large-scale construction near the village of Pavlivka that began in June 2024. Experts warn the site could hold strategic value for Moscow in its war against Ukraine and confrontation with the West.
Satellite images reveal extensive construction
According to the investigation, the facility is located on the grounds of a former Soviet base, “Military Camp No. 25 Pavlivka,” once home to the Slutsk 306th strategic missile regiment. Images taken since mid-2024 show forest clearance, earthworks, and major construction, which intensified in 2025. The site now covers over two square kilometers, with warehouses, three hangars, building foundations for personnel housing, and additional prepared pads connected by roads. Officially, Belarusian authorities have provided no information, and no public records or cadastral entries mention the project.
Expert assessments point to missile deployment
Retired Finnish intelligence officer Marko Eklund, who studied Russia’s armed forces for over 20 years, told Eesti Ekspress the site strongly resembles a strategic missile base. He suggested it could be designated for the Oreshnik system, noting the scale and layout fit such a purpose. Russian President Vladimir Putin previously stated that the missile could be deployed in Belarus before the end of 2025.
The Oreshnik missile and its implications
The Oreshnik is Russia’s newest medium-range missile, capable of carrying multiple independently targeted warheads. This technology makes it difficult for modern missile defense systems to intercept. Stationing it in Belarus would place critical European targets, including in Ukraine and Poland, under immediate threat by reducing flight times. The move would deepen military integration between Moscow and Minsk, turning Belarus into an extension of the Kremlin’s strategic arsenal.
Broader geopolitical and security risks
Analysts say deploying Oreshnik in Belarus signals Moscow’s readiness for deeper confrontation with the West. By combining nuclear threats with military exercises, Putin continues to use nuclear blackmail as a political tool. NATO would be forced to respond by strengthening missile defense systems, deploying more troops, and reinforcing its eastern flank. This escalation risks long-term instability across the region.
Belarus caught between dependence and maneuvering
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko remains dependent on Russian financial and political backing, yet seeks limited room for maneuver by reaching out to Western partners. Hungary, under Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, has acted as an informal lobbyist for Minsk in the EU. His visit to Belarus served both to legitimize Lukashenko’s rule and to signal supposed “normalization” of relations with the West. However, the timing of the visit—on the same day Russia struck Ukraine with missiles and drones—was seen as aligning with Moscow’s narrative of “dialogue at any price.” Critics argue such moves undermine EU and NATO unity, benefiting the Kremlin.
