Russia and Belarus have begun the large-scale military exercise “Zapad-2025” on Belarusian territory, aiming to project readiness for conflict on NATO’s eastern flank despite signs of an overstretched Russian army. Analysts note that the drills are designed more to impress domestic audiences in Moscow and Minsk than to demonstrate real combat capabilities.
Propaganda value outweighs military performance
The exercise has been framed in Russian and Belarusian state media as proof that “the whole world fears us,” with Moscow highlighting the participation of U.S. and NATO observers as evidence of Western concern. Yet the maneuvers relied heavily on outdated tactics such as low-altitude bombing runs, airborne troop landings, and armored breakthroughs, which have shown limited effectiveness in Ukraine’s battlefield conditions.
Limited use of modern warfare techniques
Despite claims by officials in Minsk and Moscow, the drills offered little evidence of incorporating modern methods of warfare that Russia itself uses in Ukraine, including drones and precision-guided munitions. Announced tests of the new “Oreshnik” missile system were not confirmed, further underscoring the gap between rhetoric and reality.
Aimed at NATO and signaling future risks
While the training exercises do not provide a full picture of Russia’s actual military strength, their overt orientation against NATO and the timing with Russian drone incursions into Alliance territory signal the Kremlin’s readiness to escalate tensions. Western defense officials caution that such demonstrations, though theatrical, reflect planning for potential aggression against NATO members.
Belarus seeks to leverage Western attention
For Minsk, the exercises also serve a political purpose: signaling to Washington and European capitals that Belarus seeks a margin of independence from Moscow’s grip. By amplifying its role in “Zapad-2025,” Belarus positions itself as both Russia’s ally and a potential interlocutor with the West.
