Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 2025 trip to Beijing underscored Moscow’s shift from an aspiring independent power in a multipolar world to a state deeply dependent on China. While the Kremlin once sought to stand as a global pole of influence, Russia has instead become economically, politically and strategically subordinate to its eastern neighbor.
Strategic ambitions reduced to subordination
Moscow’s longstanding ambition of building a multipolar order has collapsed into what analysts describe as “monodependence” on China. Beijing dominates the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, has consolidated influence across Central Asia and the Caucasus, and now dictates the terms of energy cooperation, with Russian oil and gas exported at discount prices. Key foreign policy decisions in Moscow are increasingly aligned with Chinese priorities.
War in Ukraine as a turning point
The invasion of Ukraine marked the decisive rupture. Far from restoring Russia’s stature, the war shattered its international standing and left it without strategic autonomy. Once leveraging the memory of victory in World War II as a central symbol of state power, Moscow has seen even this narrative absorbed by Beijing, further diminishing its independent voice on the world stage.
From Cold War rivalry to resource dependency
The reversal is striking compared with the 1960s, when the Soviet Union resisted Chinese territorial demands over Damansky Island and vied with Beijing for leadership of the socialist bloc. In 2025, by contrast, Russia finds itself reduced to the role of a raw materials supplier, with its political and economic future increasingly defined in Beijing rather than Moscow.
Europe faces new security dilemmas
For Europe, Russia’s subordination to China poses a complex challenge. Analysts argue that detaching Moscow from Beijing is no longer realistic; instead, Western policymakers may need to consider how to manage Russia’s resources in concert with China, while preparing for potential military confrontations in Europe. Some warn that the only viable strategy for the West may be to act preemptively, not simply to arm Ukraine but to ensure Europe’s security on its own terms.
