Poland’s public finances have received a significant boost from the economic activity of Ukrainian refugees, generating 111 billion zlotys over three years, according to a joint report by the UN Refugee Agency and Deloitte. The study shows that Ukrainians, who arrived in large numbers after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, contributed to the state budget by working, starting businesses and consuming goods, while also bringing in capital from abroad, including savings in Ukrainian banks.
Contribution to state revenues
The report estimates that revenues to Poland’s general government budget grew by 2.0% in 2022, 2.75% in 2023 and 2.94% in 2024. In monetary terms, this represents 25.0 billion zlotys in 2022, 39.1 billion in 2023 and 47.0 billion in 2024. In the long term, Ukrainian refugees are projected to increase annual government income by around 2.7%. The study notes that initial spending on social assistance was offset by tax payments, social contributions and overall economic activity.
Tax payments and state support
Between 2022 and 2024, Poland allocated 7.56 billion zlotys in direct social payments to Ukrainians and over 9 billion zlotys for healthcare, education and other needs. At the same time, Ukrainians contributed 51.3 billion zlotys in taxes and social security contributions, according to official Polish government data. The Ukraine Support Tracker from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimates that Poland provided military, humanitarian and financial aid to Ukraine worth 5.134 billion euros (about 22 billion zlotys) during the same period.
Impact on economic growth
The presence of Ukrainian refugees has also accelerated Poland’s GDP growth. Their entry into the labor market and role as consumers and entrepreneurs drove additional GDP growth of 1.5% in 2022, 2.3% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024. This equates to an additional 98.7 billion zlotys in 2024 alone. With integration and skill development, their contribution is expected to reach 3.2% of GDP by 2030. The report concludes that while refugee inflows initially created fiscal pressure, their long-term impact has been a net positive for economic growth and public finances.
