In August 2025, Russia attempted once again to promote its long-discredited “Istanbul guarantees” plan, first floated in 2022. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared Moscow’s readiness to work with the US, UK, France and China to “guarantee Ukraine’s security,” but stressed that Russia rejects any NATO troop presence on Ukrainian soil. Analysts say this reflects an effort to impose a model of capitulation, with the aggressor acting both as “guarantor” and veto-holder over real security assistance to Kyiv.
From 2022 neutrality push to today’s proposals
In March 2022, Russia tried to force Ukraine into neutrality in exchange for “security guarantees” from several states, including itself. The most dangerous clause was the veto right of each guarantor on the use of force or deployment of troops, effectively granting Russia a legal mechanism to block any military aid to Ukraine. The revived 2025 proposal mirrors this scheme, stripping Ukraine of real protection while allowing Moscow to dictate the terms of peace.
Ongoing attacks expose Moscow’s intentions
While declaring “readiness for guarantees,” Russia simultaneously continued large-scale missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities including Kremenchuk, Kostiantynivka, Odesa, Lviv and Mukachevo. Daily bombardments of civilian areas underscore that Moscow’s peace rhetoric is only a façade for ongoing warfare. Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev dismissed NATO security guarantees as “unnecessary,” once again revealing the Kremlin’s refusal to engage in genuine agreements.
Western leaders reject Russia’s model
The latest summits in Alaska and Washington confirmed the gap between Western policy and Russian manipulation. Donald Trump sought to portray Moscow’s “offer” as a concession, but European leaders and experts stressed there had been no real shift in Russia’s stance. Lavrov’s rejection of new security formats effectively derailed US-Russia talks, with the Kremlin pushing discussions down to technical delegations to avoid responsibility and deter fresh sanctions.
Ukraine insists on real security mechanisms
Kyiv has consistently underlined that genuine guarantees cannot involve the aggressor. Officials stress that only expanded military support from allies, the presence of international contingents and strong Ukrainian Armed Forces can secure peace. Returning to the Istanbul model, they argue, would repeat the failure of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which failed to prevent aggression.
Shifting balance after 1,000 days of war
Despite Moscow’s diplomatic maneuvering, the reality on the ground has changed. After more than a thousand days of war, Russia controls less than 1% of Ukrainian territory, while suffering severe human and economic losses. Ukraine’s resilience, backed by Western allies, contrasts sharply with the Kremlin’s diminishing leverage. The unity of the US and Europe, reaffirmed in Washington, reinforced the principle of “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”, ensuring that Moscow’s false “guarantees” remain sidelined.
