A sustained polling boost for the new government is fuelling speculation that Andy Burnham is considering an early general election, as a fall in popularity for Reform UK continues, reports BritPanorama.
The governing party has remained consistently above Nigel Farage’s party for approval since Mr Burnham’s coronation in July, when Labour overtook Reform UK for the first time since March 2025.
The new leadership has also impacted the ratings of Zack Polanski’s Green Party, which has seen a drop in support over the past few months.
Despite this shift, the government has stated that it does not intend to call an early election. However, Labour sources have indicated that the upcoming by-election to replace Sir Keir Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras is viewed as a test run for a possible early election.
The former prime minister announced earlier this month he would leave parliament after resigning to make way for Mr Burnham.
Polanski has confirmed he will run as the Green candidate for the seat next month, marking a significant challenge for the new government.
Opposition parties appear to be preparing for an early election as well, with Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey revealing that a manifesto working group has already been established. “We don’t normally do it this early,” he noted.
Furthermore, sources within Reform UK suggest that Mr Burnham could be swayed to call an early election depending on the results of the London by-election. If Labour’s candidate defeats Polanski convincingly, it could indicate that the progressive vote is aligning with Labour once again.
A Conservative source corroborated this view, stating that a victory over the Greens in Holborn and St Pancras could “tempt” the prime minister into calling an election.
“[Burnham’s] whole thing is to consolidate the left,” the source said. “If he continues to constrict the Green vote then it will tempt him into an early election whilst the right remains split.”
Under Sir Keir’s leadership, polling indicated that Labour began to lose ground with left-leaning voters on issues such as Gaza and welfare spending, coinciding with an uplift for the Greens, who recorded 14 per cent approval in April compared to Labour’s low of 19 per cent.
Polls currently forecast that Labour will secure a substantial majority in Holborn and St Pancras, estimated at nearly 50 per cent, when the contest takes place in 2024.
However, the political landscape has been shifting. The Greens captured three councils in London from Labour during local elections, increasing their seat count in Camden—home to Holborn and St Pancras—from one to eleven, while Labour retained overall control.
Will Labour call an early election?
There are undeniable advantages for Mr Burnham in calling an early election, particularly if Labour retains Holborn and St Pancras.
The new prime minister has pledged significant reforms; however, critics argue that after securing his role with merely 24,000 votes in Makerfield and running uncontested, he lacks a mandate from the broader electorate to implement his agenda.
A general election victory would provide him with this mandate and potentially grant him an additional two years to enact his proposed policies.
Per current rules, the next general election must occur by 2029 at the latest.
Nonetheless, polling suggests it may be a challenging time for Labour’s key rivals, Reform and the Greens, as both parties experience declining support.
Reform’s approval now stands at its lowest in 20 months, averaging 24 points, while the Greens have slipped from 14 to 10 points.
In contrast, the Conservatives have plateaued around 20 points, and the Liberal Democrats at approximately 11.
Polling expert John Curtice expressed skepticism regarding Labour’s optimism in light of these trends, suggesting there remains potential for Reform UK to emerge as a leading party in a countrywide election.
“The numbers are just not there,” he remarked.
The drastic local election results saw Labour lose 38 councils, diminishing support in areas where they were previously dominant. As Curtice explained, this scenario implies that Reform could still perform well in terms of gaining seats.
Burnham’s long-held ambition to become prime minister complicates the decision-making process. Curtice noted that, “Holding an election now means risking three years to gain two. It’s a bad deal.”
