Labour by-election seen as pivotal test for party’s leadership
The by-election to replace Sir Keir Starmer is being used as a test run for Andy Burnham to decide whether to pull the trigger on an early general election, Labour sources have told BritPanorama.
The Holborn and St Pancras contest, widely expected to be held on 8 October, was called after Sir Keir concluded his parliamentary career earlier this month following his ousting as prime minister and Labour leader.
Green leader Zack Polanski is now contesting the seat, and Labour strategists around Mr. Burnham indicate this will be a clear test of whether the change in leadership has mitigated the rising threat from the Greens.
Labour has selected Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, a child refugee who came to the UK, as their candidate for the seat.
However, the party remains wary after the Green candidate Hannah Spencer placed third, while Reform came second in the ultra-safe Gorton and Denton seat earlier this year.
A Labour source noted, “Because Keir’s seat was a target and Polanski is running in it, this gives the PM a perfect opportunity to see if the Green threat has gone with a change of leader.”
They added, “If we can beat Polanski in a by-election it will show that Labour is in good shape to fight a general election.”
One source mentioned that the decision to sanction Israeli settlers and adopt a firmer stance against the Netanyahu government had “nullified some of the Green appeal” to Labour voters. “This by-election will be a test of that,” they added.
Political analysts speculate that an unusual November election could follow, marking the earliest general election after a by-election in October.
Nonetheless, Downing Street pointed out that Mr. Burnham previously stated on the BBC that he would not call an early election, asserting, “I’m going to rule it out… I don’t think people want it.”
Despite this, speculation is rising about a snap poll as decisions on taxation and spending loom, compounded by a lack of mandate as prime minister under Sir Keir’s manifesto.
Polling experts, including professor Sir John Curtice, have cautioned against an early election, noting that the “Burnham bounce” has not produced a significant lead for Labour. Still, the prospect of an early election remains on the table.
Whitehall sources have indicated that civil servants have received training on operating without a government, a standard procedure during elections when Parliament is not in session.
Other political parties are also preparing for a potential early election. Reform has claimed that a £72 million donation from two crypto billionaires will aid their election campaign in anticipation of Mr. Burnham calling one in the coming months.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has requested a pre-election briefing on government finances, signalling the possibility of a forthcoming poll.
Some sources suggest that Sir Keir may have stepped down earlier to leverage his seat as a measure of the party’s capability to pursue an early election.
As one strategist explained, “Labour advisors are using the by-election result as the decider on calling a snap this year or not.”
They further theorised that this strategy had materialised in August and subsequently influenced Sir Keir’s resignation.
Despite concerns, Labour feels the Burnham honeymoon period is progressing better than expected, underpinned by policies like removing VAT from energy bills and capping bus fares at £2, which appear to resonate with voters. However, there is anxiety that this momentum may be fleeting.
Current polling gives Labour a 27% share, closely followed by Reform at 25%, and the Conservatives at 19%, with the Greens trailing at 11%, underscoring a drop since Sir Keir’s leadership.
Mr. Burnham enjoys a +5 leader rating, while Ms. Badenoch is rated +1, in contrast to Mr. Polanski at -22 and Mr. Farage at -26.
Confident in his candidacy, Mr. Polanski expressed, “This by-election is first and foremost about the people of Holborn and St Pancras, and whether they want to be represented by another Labour backbencher who will toe the party line or if they want a bold Green MP who will fight for them and push the government to be better.”
He emphasised the need for an MP who will tackle issues like affordable housing, questioning Labour’s commitment under Mr. Burnham’s leadership, who he said has dismissed calls for rent controls and public ownership of water companies.
The tension surrounding this by-election reflects broader uncertainties in Labour’s position, where outcomes could signal whether the party is overcoming internal challenges or grappling with them anew.
