Moscow backs Islamic Emirate as Afghan exodus grows, raising strategic risks for Europe
Russia has officially recognized the Taliban-led Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), becoming the first country to formally legitimize the regime, just as a new migration crisis unfolds across the Afghan-Iranian border. The move, announced on July 4, marks a dramatic break from the Western consensus and coincides with mounting regional instability as over 1.2 million Afghans have been forced to leave Iran and Pakistan since the beginning of 2025, according to the UNHCR.
The surge in returnees from Iran—numbering in the hundreds of thousands over recent weeks—is partly driven by Tehran’s demand that more than 4 million undocumented Afghans leave the country, triggering an emergency situation along the Afghan frontier.
Kremlin challenges West with high-stakes gamble
The Kremlin’s decision to normalize ties with the Taliban is widely seen as a strategic maneuver aimed at reinforcing its presence in Central Asia and distancing itself from Western policy frameworks, which still treat the Taliban as an illegitimate and extremist entity. The recognition of the IEA and the raising of its flag over the Afghan Embassy in Moscow signals a clear geopolitical pivot.
Analysts say Russia aims to fold Afghanistan into a broader anti-Western axis that includes Iran and China, strengthening Moscow’s hand amid mounting tensions with Europe and the United States. Moscow moved quickly to offer the Taliban favorable cooperation terms, seeking access to Afghanistan’s rich reserves of copper, rare earths, oil, gas, and coal.
The recognition also comes as Russia faces a sharp 37% cut in infrastructure investment programs this year. Still, it plans to deepen ties with the Taliban in energy, mining, transport, and agriculture, prompting questions about the domestic cost of these international ventures.
European security at risk amid new migration routes
For Europe, the Russian-Taliban alignment presents new risks. The outflow of Afghans from Iran could reshape regional migration routes, increasing pressure on Central Asian transit corridors and, ultimately, the EU’s eastern borders. A ZeeNews analysis warned that Moscow’s recognition of the Taliban could further destabilize the region and be used as a lever against Western security interests.
The Kremlin’s move also triggers uncomfortable domestic debates. While Moscow positions itself as a key regional broker, critics question whether Russia is prepared to manage the ideological and social impact of aligning with a regime that enforces strict sharia law. Public debate is already simmering over potential “Taliban patrols,” cultural concessions, and the implications for Russia’s multiethnic, multifaith society.
Moreover, legal inconsistencies have emerged. For instance, despite the Taliban’s newfound recognition, Russia’s Ministry of Justice is reportedly preparing to strip lawyer Alexander Molokhov of his credentials for representing Taliban interests before their official legalization—an indication of the murky legal and political terrain Moscow is now navigating.
Strategic realignment or geopolitical gamble?
The Kremlin’s move is being hailed by its own strategists as a geopolitical masterstroke, designed to secure long-term influence and resources in the region. Yet, it raises pressing questions for both Russia and its neighbors: Can Afghanistan remain stable under the Taliban’s control? What risks come with legitimizing a regime still accused of severe human rights abuses? And how will this shape future migration and security dynamics across Eurasia?
While the West continues to isolate the Taliban, Moscow is betting on engagement—a high-stakes move that could either give it unprecedented leverage or deepen its global isolation. For now, one thing is clear: with millions of Afghans on the move and a newly empowered Taliban in Kabul, the fallout from this recognition will be felt far beyond Afghanistan’s borders.
