Moldovan authorities carried out over 250 raids across the country on September 22, 2025, detaining 74 individuals suspected of plotting to destabilize the nation ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for September 28. The operations targeted more than 100 people linked to criminal networks allegedly coordinating with Russia to incite unrest and influence electoral outcomes, according to the national police statement.
Evidence seized and suspects under investigation
Authorities confiscated passports, SIM cards, foreign bank cards, weapons, and tents during the raids. In total, 111 people are implicated in the criminal investigation. Prosecutors and anti-corruption officials have previously conducted similar operations in September, including a September 16 raid in Chișinău that resulted in the seizure of over 20 million lei tied to illegal party financing.
Electoral landscape and polling data
A recent CBS Research survey conducted from September 6 to 13, 2025, shows the pro-presidential Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) leading with 29.7% of the vote but falling short of a parliamentary majority. The Socialist-led Patriotic Bloc would secure 13.2%, while Our Party ranks third at 7.5%. Other political groups, including the Alternative bloc, fall below the 4% threshold. Notably, 26.8% of respondents remain undecided.
Geopolitical stakes for Moldova and Russia
Moldova, granted EU candidate status in 2022, faces a pivotal moment where parliamentary election results could determine its geopolitical trajectory. A setback for pro-European forces may stall EU integration and heighten political instability, potentially drawing the country closer to Russian influence. Conversely, for Russia, influencing Moldovan elections represents an ongoing effort to challenge Western alignment and reassert sway over post-Soviet states, weakening EU positions in the region and adding pressure on Ukraine’s southwestern border.
Kremlin interference and domestic vulnerabilities
Bloomberg reported that Russian authorities developed a plan in spring 2025 to undermine PAS and President Maia Sandu by recruiting Moldovan citizens abroad to vote, organizing protests, and running a widespread disinformation campaign on Telegram, TikTok, and Facebook. Domestic challenges such as corruption, poverty, and low incomes have created fertile ground for populist and pro-Russian narratives, allowing opposition parties to criticize the pro-European government’s effectiveness and advocate for a shift in geopolitical orientation.
Potential political fallout
Should PAS lose its majority, coalition negotiations could produce a fragile government less capable of advancing EU integration reforms. Pro-Russian factions could exploit legislative gridlock, orchestrate mass protests demanding Sandu’s resignation, or, if PAS wins, launch campaigns to discredit election results and destabilize public trust in state institutions.
Moldova, therefore, stands at a crossroads where the parliamentary vote will shape both domestic governance and the country’s long-term alignment with Europe or Russia, with consequences for regional security and the stability of neighboring Ukraine.
