Persistent Cross-Border Travel Despite Official Warnings
Thousands of Latvian citizens continue to travel into Belarus to visit relatives, use sanatoriums, and shop, despite repeated warnings from Latvian authorities about the risks of detention and recruitment by Belarusian security services. Official data shows 5,592 Latvian nationals crossed into Belarus via Latvian border points in December 2025, with a further 2,857 crossings recorded in January 2026. Agnese Salina, director of the Consular Department at Latvia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that it is a mistake to believe ordinary people face no threat in Belarus, noting citizens can face various provocations, false accusations, and arrest.
Coercive Recruitment Tactics by Belarusian Agencies
Latvia’s State Security Service warns that detected attempts to recruit Latvian citizens by Belarusian agencies target both individuals with access to protected information and those without. The service outlined that Belarusian security services aggressively employ illegal methods on their own territory to force foreign nationals to cooperate, including threats, blackmail, and psychological pressure. The price for leniency or release from liability is agreement to cooperate and undertake activities aligning with Belarusian interests.
Strategic Intelligence Gathering for Wider Interests
The recruitment campaign aims to gain access to information about Latvian state institutions, critical infrastructure, defence facilities, and societal sentiment. This intelligence is valuable not only to Minsk but also to Moscow, with Belarus effectively acting as an extended intelligence platform for Russia on its western flank. The operations seek to create a network of agents of influence within Latvia capable of being activated to destabilise the internal situation or spread disinformation during a crisis.
Latvian Countermeasures and Border Restrictions
Latvian authorities have implemented measures to curb travel, including a ban on commercial tourist bus services to Russia and Belarus effective from 1 November 2025. Regular bus services will operate until existing licenses expire, with a specific route to Gomel via several Belarusian cities set to end on 27 June 2026. Since 15 October 2025, those wishing to cross the Latvian-Belarusian border by car in the “live” queue must pre-register in an electronic system. Five Latvian citizens remained detained in Belarus as of 2025.
Broader Security Implications for NATO and EU
The situation amplifies security concerns for Latvia as a member of both NATO and the European Union, occurring against the backdrop of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine and wider strategic confrontation with the West. The combination of intelligence gathering and information operations aligns with a hybrid model previously employed by Russia against other European states. The scale of travel provides Belarusian services with a larger pool of potential targets, increasing the risk of successful recruitment even if only a small percentage of visitors are approached.
