Orbán’s Double Game: How Hungary’s Leader Plays the West While Embracing China and Russia

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has evolved from a rebellious voice within the EU into a strategic saboteur at the heart of Europe. His political manoeuvres are no longer just nationalist defiance—they’re a calculated campaign that undermines Western alliances while extracting maximum benefit from them. With China and Russia as quiet partners and Brussels and Washington as useful targets, Orbán has mastered a geopolitical balancing act that threatens the integrity of both the European Union and NATO.

A Member of the Club, Undermining It from Within

Orbán’s Hungary shows that it’s possible to reap billions in EU funds while actively eroding the very values that justify that support. While Brussels plays by the rules, Orbán weaponises them.

Since joining the EU, Hungary has received over €30 billion in European funds—money intended for reforms, innovation, and infrastructure. Instead, it has helped entrench a system of media control, judicial manipulation, and oligarchic patronage. EU money is financing an anti-European regime.

Whenever Brussels pushes back, Orbán retaliates with vetoes, stalling sanctions against Russia, blocking aid to Ukraine, or delaying strategic decisions. In late 2023, despite earlier threats of freezing funds, the European Commission caved, unblocking more than €10 billion in exchange for minimal cooperation.

This is not just a political failure—it reflects a deeper crisis of Western resolve, with the EU funding a government that actively undermines its strategic interests.

Playing the Trump Card

Across the Atlantic, Orbán plays another game—courting the United States, while quietly dismantling its influence in Central Europe.

Publicly, he speaks of “shared values” with the US and hosts American investors, but behind the scenes his government sabotages investigations into Chinese companies and erodes US regional leverage.

Orbán has aligned himself with Donald Trump and the Republican Party, promoting MAGA-aligned narratives in Europe and hosting conservative forums. His goal? To position Hungary as a bridge between a future Trump White House and the EU, shielding himself from criticism over corruption, human rights abuses, and the crackdown on independent media.

He is preparing for a world in which Washington’s pressure on Moscow weakens, and Hungary becomes the go-between for US-Russia-China coordination.

Sanctions as Business Strategy

Despite professing support for European values, Orbán continues to deepen Hungary’s economic ties with Russia.

Officially part of the EU’s sanctions regime, Hungary regularly blocks or delays measures targeting Russian banks and elites, citing “national interest.” But the financial motivation is clear: in 2024, the Russian branch of OTP Bank—Hungary’s largest—reported profits exceeding $370 million, a 40% increase from the previous year. It services clients such as Okskaya Shipyard, which builds equipment for the Russian military.

Orbán has successfully lobbied to remove OTP from EU sanctions lists in exchange for EU payments, turning sanctions policy into a bargaining chip.

Meanwhile, István Tiborcz, Orbán’s son-in-law, is negotiating the purchase of Raiffeisen Bank’s Russian assets, potentially creating a new financial pipeline for circumventing Western sanctions.

A Strategic Pivot Toward China

While Russia provides political leverage, China offers long-term economic gain.

Despite US warnings, including a recent statement by Special Envoy Robert Palladino, Hungary continues to deepen ties with Beijing. Orbán rejects pressure to distance himself from Chinese investment, positioning Hungary as China’s gateway to Europe.

Among Hungary’s top new investors are CATL, a Chinese battery manufacturer, and BYD, the electric vehicle giant. These deals are not just about business—they’re strategic. Hungary has already allocated over €2.4 billion in subsidies to Chinese firms.

Projects like the Budapest–Belgrade railway, the CATL gigafactory, and 5G infrastructure developments signal a long-term partnership. The Hungarian government is even collaborating with Huawei and 4iG on cloud and defence technologies—giving China access to sensitive Central European infrastructure.

The Real Danger to the West

Viktor Orbán is more than an inconvenient ally—he’s a systemic threat to Western cohesion.

His ability to extract funds and legitimacy from the West while promoting authoritarian interests makes him a blueprint for illiberal leaders worldwide. Hungary under Orbán is no neutral or pragmatic actor—it is a tool of disruption, destabilising Western unity from within.

Unless Brussels and Washington find new strategies to counter and isolate this behaviour, Hungary may soon transform from a reluctant partner into an active proxy for Moscow and Beijing—right in the centre of Europe.