Many Kerry fans will have been delighted to see the Kingdom avoid the ‘group of death’ in Thursday’s draw for the All-Ireland SFC, but former Mayo star and RTÉ analyst Lee Keegan believes a routine path through the next stage of the competition could prove detrimental to their prospects of lifting the Sam Maguire for a 39th time.
Should Keegan’s native county defeat Galway in the upcoming Connacht provincial decider, they’ll face true tests against Derry, Dublin and the losers of the Ulster final between Armagh and Donegal.
A defeat would still see them face one of Armagh or Donegal, Tyrone and Cavan.
Kerry’s group challenges appear less onerous, with Cork, Roscommon and the beaten side from the Leinster final – Louth or Meath – providing their opposition, should they justify their overwhelming favouritism against Clare in Killarney on Sunday and lift the Munster Cup.
Last season, Jack O’Connor’s side made smooth progress through the group stage, but they came up just short against eventual All-Ireland winners Armagh at the semi-final stage.
Could an unwanted case of deja vu lie in store for Kerry this time around? Keegan opined just that view on the RTÉ GAA podcast.
“I would make an argument from a Kerry perspective that it’s the worst draw for them,” he said.
“If you look at their form last year, they had a pretty similar group and nothing to trouble them.
“When it got to the business end, Kerry really struggled, because they didn’t have a big favourite to take on.
“Kerry are huge favourites for Sunday and rightly so, but into a group stage like that, where it’s potentially not going to be competitive enough for them, if they come up against another Armagh or Donegal in the quarter-finals or semi-finals, they could be caught cold again.
“Last year we saw it against Armagh. I felt they just lacked something about them.
“Armagh were battle-hardened, they’d come through a real rigorous group, a tough league campaign.
“I just don’t think Kerry can afford to have that again this year.”
One area where Keegan believes future opponents may expose Kerry is in their defence of two-pointers.
“I still think Kerry are under the old regime a little bit,” the Westport man said. “They’re sitting deep and they’re attacking with lovely flair, but they’re nearly forgetting about those outside zones a little bit.
“Later in the championship, if you’ve Donegal, who are quite good at two-pointers for example, they’ll exploit that against Kerry defensively.
“I think Kerry are getting caught a little bit in no man’s land, whether to sit too deep, and then they’re nearly afraid a little bit to push the line because if you look at the Cork game in extra time, they coughed up two really clearcut goal opportunities.
“I think they really need to sort that out in the latter stages. I don’t think they’re going to get caught on Sunday, but a team with high-end forwards and smart forwards will exploit that later in the year.”
