Almost half of German citizens believe the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) will become the strongest political force in the Bundestag following the 2029 federal elections. According to a survey by the INSA Institute, conducted on 14–15 August 2025 among 1,005 respondents, 43% of those polled said they expected AfD to top the vote, while 39% ruled it out and 18% remained undecided. The findings, published by Deutsche Welle, highlight the party’s growing traction despite being classified as right-wing extremist by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency earlier this year.
Regional prospects and rising popularity
AfD, currently the largest opposition group in the Bundestag with 151 out of 630 seats, is projected to strengthen its influence at regional level. Elections in five federal states are scheduled for 2026, and 43% of Germans believe the party will secure at least one premiership. Polls also suggest AfD could become the leading force in multiple eastern states, further consolidating its political standing and giving it access to administrative resources.
A separate INSA survey conducted on 11–15 August with 1,206 participants placed AfD at 25%, just behind the ruling CDU/CSU bloc with 26%. Meanwhile, a Forsa poll released on 12 August showed AfD in first place nationwide with 26% support, ahead of the conservatives at 24%. These results underscore a steady upward trend in the party’s popularity.
Extremism concerns and constitutional scrutiny
In May, Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) declared AfD a right-wing extremist party at the national level. Although AfD challenged the designation in court, and BfV temporarily suspended its classification, regional offices in Brandenburg, Saxony, Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt have already recognised their local AfD branches as confirmed extremist organisations. The ongoing legal dispute has added further controversy to AfD’s rise.
Implications for German and European politics
The surge in AfD support reflects eroding trust in traditional parties such as the CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens and FDP, driven by dissatisfaction with government policies on migration, the economy and energy. Analysts warn this could fragment Germany’s political landscape and intensify clashes between liberal and nationalist forces, with risks of street protests and radicalisation.
AfD’s platform is openly Eurosceptic, pushing to weaken the EU by reclaiming powers for national governments. The party’s success could obstruct EU initiatives on migration, economic policy and foreign affairs, and in the long run may fuel calls for a “Dexit” referendum. This threatens to undermine the cohesion of the European Union at a time of geopolitical strain.
Impact on Ukraine and transatlantic security
AfD has consistently opposed military aid to Ukraine, calling for an end to sanctions against Russia and a resumption of economic ties with Moscow. Should the party gain further influence in German politics, it could restrict or halt deliveries of weapons and financial support to Kyiv, significantly weakening Ukraine’s defence capabilities.
The party also promotes narratives of “peace negotiations” and a “frozen conflict” aligned with Russian interests, effectively reinforcing the Kremlin’s strategy of exhausting Ukraine and eroding European unity. Russian state media already amplify AfD’s successes as evidence of “Europe’s war fatigue”, portraying it as proof of diminishing Western support for Ukraine.
Beyond Ukraine, AfD’s hostility towards NATO aligns with Moscow’s strategic goal of undermining the Alliance. A stronger AfD presence in federal politics could obstruct European and NATO security initiatives, creating vulnerabilities in Europe’s collective defence system.
